Forecasting special events such as conflicts and epidemics is challenging because of their nature and the limited amount of historical information from which a reference base can be built. This study evaluates the performances of structured analogies, the Delphi method and interaction groups in forecasting the impact of such events. The empirical evidence reveals that the use of structured analogies leads to an average forecasting accuracy improvement of 8.4% compared to unaided judgment. This improvement in accuracy is greater when the use of structured analogies is accompanied by an increase in the level of expertise, the use of more analogies, the relevance of these analogies, and the introduction of pooling analogies through interaction within experts. Furthermore, the results from group judgmental forecasting approaches were very promising; the Delphi method and interaction groups improved accuracy by 27.0% and 54.4%, respectively.

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The current paper is an expansion of the paper ‘Theta Model Forecasts Real Estate Values’, presented at the European Real Estate Society (ERES) Conference, 2006. In the former paper, the Theta method was compared with other forecasting methods in forecasting quarterly housing prices in the UK. The theta method had then produced the best forecasts, on average, with the smallest mean errors. Additional data are used here, representing the total average dwelling prices in the UK, and are organized into months, from January 1983 up to September 2006. This paper examines the present state of the UK housing market and tests the theta method on the new monthly data. The time‐series data used for forecasting are again provided from the Halifax House Price Index, and cover different categories of buyers (all, first‐time buyers and home movers) and houses (all, new and existing). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Purpose -The main scope of the paper is to demonstrate the capabilities of PYTHIA forecasting platform, to compare time series forecasting techniques, which were used to forecast mortgage loans in UK, and to show how PYTHIA can be useful for a bank. Design/methodology/approach -The paper outlines the methods used to forecast the time series data, which are included in PYTHIA. Theta, the time-series used to forecast average mortgage loan prices, were grouped in: all buyers -average loan prices in UK; first-time buyers -average loan prices in UK; and home-movers -average loan prices in UK. The case of all buyers -average loan prices in UK, was presented in detail. Findings -After the comparison of the methods, the best forecasts are produced by WINTERS and this is maybe due to the fact that there is seasonality in the data. The Theta method comes next in the row and generally produces good forecasts with small mean absolute percentage errors. In order to tell with grater certainty which method produces the most accurate forecasts we could compare the rest error statistics provided by PYTHIA too. Originality/value -The paper presents the PYTHIA forecasting platform and shows how it can be used by the managers of a Bank to forecast mortgage loan values. PYTHIA can provide the forecasts required by practically all business situations demanding accurate predictions. It is designed and developed with the purpose of making the task of managerial forecasting straightforward, user-friendly and practical. It incorporates a lot of knowledge and experience in the field of forecasting, modeling and monitoring while fully utilizing new capabilities of computers and software.

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This paper describes a generic methodology to support the process of modelling, adaptation and implementation (MAI) of Enterprise Resource Planning Systems (ERPS) based on the principles of goal directed project management (GDPM). The proposed methodology guides the project manager through specific stages in order to successfully complete the ERPS implementation. The development of the proper MAI methodology is deemed necessary because it will simplify the installation process of ERPS. The goal directed project management method was chosen since it provides a way of focusing all changes towards a predetermined goal. The main stages of the methodology are the promotion and preparation steps, the proposal, the contract, the implementation and the completion. The methodology was applied as a pilot application by a major ERPS development company. Important benefits were the easy and effective guidance for all installation and analysis stages, the faster installation for the ERPS and the control and cost reduction for the installation, in terms of time, manpower, technological equipment and other resources.

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