SUMMARYThe largest output fluctuation is an index used to quantify the disturbance of a power grid caused by wind power plants and photovoltaic power generation systems connected to it. In order to develop its estimation method, we investigate the relationship between the largest output fluctuation and the standard deviation of a newly proposed random variable generated by differencing the output variation of photovoltaic power generation systems. Output fluctuation coefficients are defined and estimated using measured data of photovoltaic power generation systems located at 52 places. An approximation equation is presented to predict geographical correlations between the proposed random variables for photovoltaic power systems by using the distances between their locations. Finally, it is shown that the largest output fluctuation of many photovoltaic power generation systems dispersed in a wide area is predictable by using the output fluctuation coefficients and the equation approximating the geographical correlations of output fluctuations.
Cataclastic rocks found in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) 500 m drill core and outcrops along the Nojima Fault zone on Awaji Island, southwest Japan, were examined at mesoscopic and microscopic scales. The damaged zone of this fault in granitic rocks, observed on the southeast side of the fault, is 50-60 m wide and is composed of fractured host rocks and cataclastic rocks including cataclasite, fault breccia, and fault gouge. The fault breccia and gouge of small scales are scattered in the damaged zone. Fault core (zone of extremely concentrated shearing deformation along a fault) consists of fault gouge measuring several tens to approximately 150 mm in width, as recognized both in the drill core and at outcrops of the Nojima Fault along which surface ruptures formed during the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Fault breccia, measuring a few meters wide, has developed pervasively in the damaged zone, just next to the fault core. Pseudotachylyte has been found interlayered with fault gouge within the fault core only at outcrops at Hirabarashi, not in the DPRI 500 m core. Petrological studies and powder X-ray diffraction analysis show that the pseudotachylyte and fault gouge are composed mainly of fine-grained angular clasts of the host granitic rocks, suggesting the pseudotachylyte is of 'crush origin'. Foliated cataclasite is characterized by the preferred orientation of elongated biotite clasts and granular aggregates of quartz and feldspar clasts, and by the development of cataclastic shear bands. Unlike cataclastically deformed quartz and feldspar in the cataclasite, biotite in the foliated cataclasite shows combinations of brittle and plastic deformation, such as biotite 'fish', cleavage steps, bending and kinking. These textures suggest that the foliated cataclasite formed at a deeper level than the cataclasite, fault breccia and gouge, possibly before the Quaternary period during which the Nojima Fault has moved as a dextral strike-slip fault with some reverse movement resulting in the uplifting of Awaji Island. Examination of fault rocks from surface outcrops can yield similar results to those obtained from drill cores with regard to the internal structures of a fault zone.
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