1 A new method of backward trajectory analysis for planthopper migration is presented. The method consists of two components: an advanced weather forecast model, MM5, for weather simulation, and a migration model for trajectory calculation. The weather forecast model simulates wind fields in which trajectories are calculated by the migration model. 2 It is assumed that planthoppers, Sogatella furcifera and Nilaparvata lugens, are transported at wind speeds and in wind directions. The method is evaluated using a migration event observed at Chikugo in Japan on 25 June 1969, which was recorded in hourly catch data. 3 The results indicate that the takeoff responsible for the migration occurred at 21 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) on 23 June along the coastal region of Fujian province in China. This is the first time that the source region of this event has been accurately identified. Determinations of the migrating duration and height are also consistent with observations. 4 Although the landing process is not considered in the model, it is shown that the method is able to simulate the migration and accurately estimate various parameters. This study also shows the importance of high-quality weather simulation.
The white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera, and the brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, are pests of rice and migrate from south China to Japan in the rainy season of early summer. In order to achieve high-precision migration prediction, a real-time prediction system was developed. In this system, the latest meteorological data are supplied online to an advanced numerical weather prediction model, MM5. The model forecasts three-dimensional atmospheric fields at one-hour intervals. In these fields, a planthopper migration simulation model, GEARN, calculates movement of a number of modeled planthoppers and predicts their relative aerial density at three-hour intervals. The results are converted to maps and become available on the Internet. The maps of relative aerial density provide information about the timing and area of migrations over the next two days. During the main migration season in June and July 2003, the system achieved a prediction quality that was comparable to that of rainfall forecasts by the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
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