Abstract. This is the first of two papers in which we consider a stock with price process defined by a stochastic differential equation driven by a process Y (·) different from Brownian motion. The adoption of such a colored noise input is motivated by an analysis of real market data. The process Y (·) is defined by a continuous-time AR(∞)-type equation and may have either short or long memory. We show that the process Y (·) has a good MA(∞)-type representation. The existence of such simultaneous good AR(∞) and MA(∞) representations enables us to apply a new method for the calculation of relevant conditional expectations, whence to obtain various explicit results for problems such as portfolio optimization. The financial market defined by the above stock price process is complete, and if the coefficients are constant, then the prices of European calls and puts are given by the Black-Scholes formulas as in the Black-Scholes model. Unlike the latter, however, the model allows for differences between the historical and implied volatilities. The model includes a special case in which only two additional parameters are introduced to describe the memory of the market, compared with the Black-Scholes model. Analysis based on real market data shows that this simple model with two additional parameters is more realistic in capturing the memory effect of the market, while retaining the simplicity and usefulness of the Black-Scholes model.

No abstract

We consider the finite-past predictor coefficients of stationary time series, and establish an explicit representation for them, in terms of the MA and AR coefficients. The proof is based on the alternate applications of projection operators associated with the infinite past and the infinite future. Applying the result to long memory processes, we give the rate of convergence of the finite predictor coefficients and prove an inequality of Baxter-type

Abstract. We prove a simple asymptotic formula for partial autocorrelation functions of fractional ARIMA processes.

No abstract

For a multivariate stationary process, we develop explicit representations for the finite predictor coefficient matrices, the finite prediction error covariance matrices and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) in terms of the Fourier coefficients of its phase function in the spectral domain. The derivation is based on a novel alternating projection technique and the use of the forward and backward innovations corresponding to predictions based on the infinite past and future, respectively. We show that such representations are ideal for studying the rates of convergence of the finite predictor coefficients, prediction error covariances, and the PACF as well as for proving a multivariate version of Baxter's inequality for a multivariate FARIMA process with a common fractional differencing order for all components of the process.2010 Mathematics Subject Classification. Primary 60G25; secondary 62M20, 62M10.

We develop a prediction theory for a class of processes with stationary increments. In particular, we prove a prediction formula for these processes from a finite segment of the past. Using the formula, we prove an explicit representation of the innovation processes associated with the stationary increments processes. We apply the representation to obtain a closed-form solution to the problem of expected logarithmic utility maximization for the financial markets with memory introduced by the first and second authors.

We prove a representation of the partial autocorrelation function (PACF), or the Verblunsky coefficients, of a stationary process in terms of the AR and MA coefficients. We apply it to show the asymptotic behaviour of the PACF. We also propose a new definition of short and long memory in terms of the PACF