Türkiye’nin, Orta Asya ve Ortadoğu ülkelerinden Avrupa’ya uzanan bir enerji köprüsü olarak rolü son on yılların en tartışmalı gündemlerinden biri olmuştur. Hem Avrupa’nın enerji arz güvenliği hem de üretici ülkelerin karlı pazarlara ulaşımı bakımından Türkiye önemli bir fırsat sunmaya devam etmektedir. Türkiye’nin öncelikle kendi ihtiyaçlarını karşılayabilmek için üretici ülkelerle kurduğu enerji köprüleri, zamanla Avrupa pazarına ulaşacak Güney Enerji Koridorunun şekillenmesine sebep olmaktadır. 2020 yılı kapanırken faaliyete geçen TANAP ve Güney İtalya’ya uzanan TAP ile birlikte önce Azeri gazının Avrupa pazarına ulaşımında ilk adım atılmıştır. Son Ukrayna-Rusya çatışması ile birlikte enerji piyasalarında yaşanan çalkantı ve Rusya’nın güvenilir tedarikçi rolünün sarsılması alternatif tedarik yollarının önemini tekrar vurgulamaktadır. Nükleer müzakerelerin başarıyla sonuçlanması halinde İran’ın da doğalgaz piyasalarına giriş yapması bu koridorun önemini artırıyor olacaktır. Dünyanın en büyük konvansiyonel rezervlerine sahip ülkesinin Avrupa pazarına ulaşması için Türkiye’nin coğrafi konumu eşsiz bir imkân sunmaktadır.
Russia-Ukraine War altered the political landscape in Eurasia fundamentally even before we could see the end of the armed conflict. Not only through its direct impact but mostly because of a series of spillover effects, this massive military confrontation is already affecting the power distribution in the region. EU-Russia relations, from the perspective of energy security, has already been discussed extensively but a new dimension will have to be added to this crumbling cooperation. Similarly, the preponderance of Russia in former Soviet space may be collapsing. The strategies pursued by the Western Bloc and Russia can be analyzed withing the framework of a “commitment” policy. A strong strategy, binding one actor to a certain path, might be a strong signal to push the adversaries for cooperation. Yet, carries high risks, for in case of a non-cooperative response might multiply losses for all parties. The war dynamics and energy security situation in Eurasia displays characteristics of this high-risk strategy that might possibly not bring the desired outcome. This study evaluates the energy policies as well as Russia’s wartime policies from a perspective of commitment strategy.
Turkey's adhesion process into EU brought with it an economic reform agenda based on establishment of liberal institutions and termination of populist policy making. Despite major achievements at its early years, consolidation of power by the ruling party induced a partial reversal of reform programs. Under AKP rule, Turkey's economic model started to rely more heavily on domestic consumption that was boosted with the help of global liquidity glut. The new economic model caused a setback from the liberal settings imposed after the 2001 crisis as independent institutions lost their autonomy and the Executive extended its all-encompassing power deeper into economic and social life. EU membership was supposed to reduce clientalist practices that had for long dominated political life but when this prospect was postponed at best, internal dynamics failed to support the liberal political and economic agenda. The rule of law and a non-partisan approach in provision of public goods that are required in order to create a healthy market economy were easily dismissed for political motivations. Populist policies expanded and consolidated the voter base of the ruling party. We aim to explain the process and dynamics of the new horizons of policy making in Turkey.
The effect of resource wealth on domestic politics has been widely discussed but its impact on foreign policy conduct is scarcely analysed. On the domestic front, rentier states not only have the repressive mechanisms to subdue discontent within its jurisdiction but they can also provide material benefits to its supporters in return for their loyalties. Hence, for resource-rich countries that have not already developed democratic institutions, authoritarianism seems to be a widely expected outcome. Yet, those rentier states may also develop a certain kind of foreign policy that increases the risk of conflict and political tensions in the international arena. Authoritarian regimes fuelled by the income generated by the sale of underground resources can pursue more aggressive policies as envisioned by democratic peace theory. This article attempts to draw a generalized framework on the effects of energy resources on the actions of exporting states while at the same time tries to draw lessons for Turkey, a country located in a troublesome but resource-rich geography.
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