Background Clinically and biologically, ASD is heterogeneous. Unusual patterns of visual preference as indexed by eye-tracking are hallmarks, yet whether they can be used to define an early biomarker of ASD as a whole, or leveraged to define a subtype is unclear. To begin to examine this issue, large cohorts are required. Methods A sample of 334 toddlers from 6 distinct groups (115 ASD, 20 ASD-Features, 57 DD, 53 Other, 64 TD, and 25 Typ SIB) participated. Toddlers watched a movie containing both geometric and social images. Fixation duration and number of saccades within each AOI and validation statistics for this independent sample computed. Next, to maximize power, data from our previous study (N=110) was added totaling 444 subjects. A subset of toddlers repeated the eye-tracking procedure. Results As in the original study, a subset of toddlers with ASD fixated on geometric images greater than 69%. Using this cutoff, sensitivity for ASD was 21%, specificity 98%, and PPV 86%. Toddlers with ASD who strongly preferred geometric images had (a) worse cognitive, language, and social skills relative to toddlers with ASD who strongly preferred social images and (b) fewer saccades when viewing geometric images. Unaffected siblings of ASD probands did not show evidence of heightened preference for geometric images. Test-retest reliability was good. Examination of age effects suggest that this test may not be appropriate with children > 4 years. Conclusions Enhanced visual preference for geometric repetition may be an early developmental biomarker of an ASD subtype with more severe symptoms.

Prognostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

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