Significance
This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.
The Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) model and its variants are powerful graph embedding tools for facilitating classification and clustering on graphs. However, a major challenge is to reduce the complexity of layered GCNs and make them parallelizable and scalable on very large graphs -state-of the art techniques are unable to achieve scalability without losing accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we propose novel parallelization techniques for graph samplingbased GCNs that achieve superior scalable performance on very large graphs without compromising accuracy. Specifically, our GCN guarantees work-efficient training and produces order of magnitude savings in computation and communication. To scale GCN training on tightly-coupled shared memory systems, we develop parallelization strategies for the key steps in training: For the graph sampling step, we exploit parallelism within and across multiple sampling instances, and devise an efficient data structure for concurrent accesses that provides theoretical guarantee of near-linear speedup with number of processing units. For the feature propagation step within the sampled graph, we improve cache utilization and reduce DRAM communication by data partitioning. We prove that our partitioning strategy is a 2approximation for minimizing the communication time compared to the optimal strategy. We demonstrate that our parallel graph embedding outperforms state-of-the-art methods in scalability (with respect to number of processors, graph size and GCN model size), efficiency and accuracy on several large datasets. On a 40-core Xeon platform, our parallel training achieves 64× speedup (with AVX) in the sampling step and 25× speedup in the feature propagation step, compared to the serial implementation, resulting in a net speedup of 21×. Our scalable algorithm enables deeper GCN, as demonstrated by 1306× speedup on a 3-layer GCN compared to Tensorflow implementation of state-of-the-art.
Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.
We report insights from ten weeks of collaborative COVID-19 forecasting for Germany and Poland (12 October – 19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.
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