PURPOSE Clinical calculators and nomograms have been endorsed by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), as they provide the most individualized and accurate estimate of patient outcome. Using molecular and clinicopathologic variables, a third-generation clinical calculator was built to predict recurrence following resection of stage I-III colon cancer. METHODS Prospectively collected data from 1,095 patients who underwent colectomy between 2007 and 2014 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center were used to develop a clinical calculator. Discrimination was measured with concordance index, and variability in individual predictions was assessed with calibration curves. The clinical calculator was externally validated with a patient cohort from Washington University's Siteman Cancer Center in St Louis. RESULTS The clinical calculator incorporated six variables: microsatellite genomic phenotype; AJCC T category; number of tumor-involved lymph nodes; presence of high-risk pathologic features such as venous, lymphatic, or perineural invasion; presence of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes; and use of adjuvant chemotherapy. The concordance index was 0.792 (95% CI, 0.749 to 0.837) for the clinical calculator, compared with 0.708 (95% CI, 0.671 to 0.745) and 0.757 (0.715 to 0.799) for the staging schemes of the AJCC manual's 5th and 8th editions, respectively. External validation confirmed robust performance, with a concordance index of 0.738 (95% CI, 0.703 to 0.811) and calibration plots of predicted probability and observed events approaching a 45° diagonal. CONCLUSION This third-generation clinical calculator for predicting cancer recurrence following curative colectomy successfully incorporates microsatellite genomic phenotype and the presence of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, resulting in improved discrimination and predictive accuracy. This exemplifies an evolution of a clinical calculator to maintain relevance by incorporating emerging variables as they become validated and accepted in the oncologic community.

IMPORTANCEThe lack of underrepresented in medicine physicians within US academic surgery continues, with Black surgeons representing a disproportionately low number.OBJECTIVE To evaluate the trend of general surgery residency application, matriculation, and graduation rates for Black trainees compared with their racial and ethnic counterparts over time. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSIn this nationwide multicenter study, data from the Electronic Residency Application Service (ERAS) for the general surgery residency match and Graduate Medical Education (GME) surveys of graduating general surgery residents were retrospectively reviewed and stratified by race, ethnicity, and sex. Analyses consisted of descriptive statistics, time series plots, and simple linear regression for the rate of change over time. Medical students and general surgery residency trainees of Asian, Black, Hispanic or Latino of Spanish origin, White, and other races were included. Data for non-US citizens or nonpermanent residents were excluded. Data were collected from 2005 to 2018, and data were analyzed in March 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESPrimary outcomes included the rates of application, matriculation, and graduation from general surgery residency programs.

Objective: To describe and evaluate trends of general surgery residency applicants, matriculants, and graduates over the last 13 years. Summary of Background Data: The application and matriculation rates of URMs to medical school has remained unchanged over the last three decades with Blacks and Hispanics representing 7.1% and 6.3% of matriculants, respectively. With each succession along the surgical career pathway, from medical school to residency to a faculty position, the percentage of URMs decreases. Methods: The Electronic Residency Application Service to General Surgery Residency and the Graduate Medical Education Survey of residents completing general surgery residency were retrospectively analyzed (2005–2018). Data were stratified by race, descriptive statistics were performed, and time series were charted. Results: From 2005 to 2018, there were 71,687 Electronic Residency Application Service applicants to general surgery residencies, 26,237 first year matriculants, and 24,893 general surgery residency graduates. Whites followed by Asians represented the highest percentage of applicants (n = 31,197, 43.5% and n = 16,602, 23%), matriculants (n = 16,395, 62.5% and n = 4768, 18.2%), and graduates (n = 15,239, 61% and n = 4804, 19%). For URMs, the applicants (n = 8603, 12%, P < 0.00001), matriculants (n = 2420, 9.2%, P = 0.0158), and graduates (n = 2508, 10%, P = 0.906) remained significantly low and unchanged, respectively, whereas the attrition was significantly higher (3.6%, P = 0.049) when compared to Whites (2.6%) and Asians (2.9%). Conclusion: Significant disparities in the application, matriculation, graduation, and attrition rates for general surgery residency exists for URMs. A call to action is needed to re-examine and improve existing recommendations/paradigms to increase the number of URMs in the surgery training pipeline.

Locally advanced rectal cancer requires multidisciplinary care. In the United States, most patients are treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation delivered over 25‐28 days, total mesorectal excision, and 4 months of adjuvant chemotherapy. While effective, this trimodal approach is arduous. Alternative approaches have emerged to streamline treatment without sacrificing oncologic outcomes. These approaches include preoperative chemotherapy with selective use of radiation, short‐course radiotherapy delivered over 5 days, and total neoadjuvant therapy with attempted nonoperative organ‐preserving management (watch and wait). Ongoing trials are assessing the efficacies of these approaches in combination with various risk stratification strategies.

IMPORTANCEPredicting outcomes in patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer is challenging because of tumor downstaging. Validated clinical calculators that can estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with rectal cancer who have received multimodal therapy are needed. OBJECTIVE To develop and validate clinical calculators providing estimates of rectal cancer recurrence and survival that are better for individualized decision-making than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system or the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prognostic study developed risk models, graphically represented as nomograms, for patients with incomplete pathological response using Cox proportional hazards and multivariable regression analyses with restricted cubic splines. Because patients with complete pathological response to neoadjuvant therapy had uniformly favorable outcomes, their predictions were obtained separately. The study included 1400 patients with stage II or III rectal cancer who received treatment with chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery at 2 comprehensive cancer centers (Memorial Sloan Kettering [MSK] Cancer Center and Siteman Cancer

PURPOSE To characterize the relationship between tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), tumor mutational burden (TMB), and genetic alterations in microsatellite stable (MSS), microsatellite instability (MSI), or mutant POLE/POLD1 colon cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS Four hundred ninety-nine resected stage I-III colon tumors treated between 2014 and 2019 were assessed for TIL; somatic mutations, copy number alterations, and structural changes in > 400 oncogenes; and MSI status. RESULTS Of the 499 tumors analyzed, 313 were MSS, 175 were MSI, and 11 had POLE/POLD1 pathogenic mutations. Both the percentage of tumors with a high level of TIL (≥ 4 lymphocytes per high-power field) and the median TMB differed significantly between the three phenotypes: MSS, 4.5% and 6 mutations/Mb; MSI, 68% and 54 mutations/Mb; POLE/POLD1, 82% and 158 mutations/Mb ( P < .05). Within each phenotype, TMB did not vary significantly with TIL level. Among MSI tumors, the median number of frameshift indels was significantly higher in tumors with high levels of TIL (20 v 17; P = .018). In the MSS group, significantly higher proportions of tumors with high levels of TIL had mutations in the transforming growth factor-β (36% v 12%; P = .01), RAS (86% v 54%; P = .02), and Hippo (7% v 1%; P = .046) pathways; in contrast, TP53 alterations were associated with low levels of TIL (74% v 43%; P = .01). CONCLUSION The association between TIL, TMB, and genetic alterations varies significantly between MSI, MSS, and mutant POLE/POLD1 colon tumors. These differences may help explain tumoral immunity and lead to predictors of response to immunotherapy.

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