The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
This study contributes to understanding the physical and economic impacts of progressive, climate-driven aquatic salinization on the spatial distribution of mangrove species in the Indian Sundarbans, which accounts for about two-fifths of the 10,200 km2 tidal-wetland forest delta. To estimate future mangrove distribution, a five-step analysis was undertaken, using high-resolution spatial assessments. A current (2015) basemap and overlays of salinity tolerance for major mangrove species and their assemblages and projected location-specific aquatic salinity for 2050 were used to predict salinity-induced migration. The results show gain-and-loss patterns, with salt-tolerant species predominating at the expense of freshwater species. These changes are likely to reduce the flow of ecosystem services, adversely affecting the livelihood options of poor people in adjacent areas. Effective management will require establishing baseline data for monitoring system changes over time, protocols for maintaining species health, and support for mangrove regeneration and restoration. Resources should also be directed to alternative livelihoods for mangrove-dependent households. The study recommends an integrated policy approach, focused on rising salinity, changes in mangrove dynamics, and the welfare of mangrove-dependent communities.
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