Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drugresistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. FindingsOn the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4•95 million (3•62-6•57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1•27 million (95% UI 0•911-1•71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27•3 deaths per 100 000 (20•9-35•3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6•5 deaths (4•3-9•4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1•5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3•57 million (2•62-4•78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillinresistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributa...

There are serious concerns with rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) across countries increasing morbidity, mortality and costs. These concerns have resulted in a plethora of initiatives globally and nationally including national action plans (NAPs) to reduce AMR. Africa is no exception, especially with the highest rates of AMR globally. Key activities in NAPs include gaining a greater understanding of current antimicrobial utilization patterns through point prevalence surveys (PPS) and subsequently instigating antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs). Consequently, there is a need to comprehensively document current utilization patterns among hospitals across Africa coupled with ASP studies. In total, 33 PPS studies ranging from single up to 18 hospitals were documented from a narrative review with typically over 50% of in-patients prescribed antimicrobials, up to 97.6% in Nigeria. The penicillins, ceftriaxone and metronidazole, were the most prescribed antibiotics. Appreciable extended prescribing of antibiotics up to 6 days or more post-operatively was seen across Africa to prevent surgical site infections. At least 19 ASPs have been instigated across Africa in recent years to improve future prescribing utilizing a range of prescribing indicators. The various findings resulted in a range of suggested activities that key stakeholders, including governments and healthcare professionals, should undertake in the short, medium and long term to improve future antimicrobial prescribing and reduce AMR across Africa.

Background Neonatal sepsis is a leading cause of child mortality, and increasing antimicrobial resistance threatens progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Evidence to guide antibiotic treatment for sepsis in neonates and young infants from randomized controlled trials or observational studies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is scarce. We aimed to describe patterns of antibiotic use, pathogens and outcomes in LMIC hospital settings globally to inform future clinical trials on the management of neonatal sepsis. Methods & Findings Hospitalised infants aged <60 days with clinical sepsis were enrolled during 2018-2020 by 19 sites in 11 countries (mainly Asia and Africa). Prospective daily data was collected on clinical signs, supportive care, antibiotic treatment, microbiology and clinical outcome at 28 days. The study was observational, with no changes to routine clinical practice. 3204 infants were enrolled, with median birth weight 2500g (IQR 1400-3000) and postnatal age 5 days (IQR 2-15). Of 309 enrolled aged 28-60 days, 58.6% (n=181) were ex-preterm and/or a neonate at admission. 2215 (69%) infants had been in hospital since birth. 206 different empiric antibiotic combinations were used, which were structured into 5 groups that were developed from the World Health Organisation (WHO) AWaRe classification. 25.9% (n=814) of infants started a WHO first line regimen (Group 1 Access, penicillin-based regimen) and 13.8% (n=432) started WHO second-line cephalosporins (cefotaxime/ceftriaxone) (Group 2 Low Watch). The largest group (34.0%, n=1068) started a regimen providing partial extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)/pseudomonal coverage (piperacillin-tazobactam, ceftazidime, or fluoroquinolone-based) (Group 3 Medium Watch), 18.0% (n=566) started a carbapenem (Group 4 High Watch), and 1.8% (n=57) started a Reserve antibiotic (Group 5, largely colistin-based). Predictors of starting non-WHO recommended regimens included lower birth weight, longer in-hospital stay, central vascular catheter use, previous culture positive sepsis or antibiotic exposure, previous surgery and greater sepsis severity. 728/2880 (25.3%) of initial regimens in Group 1-4 were escalated, mainly to carbapenems, and usually for clinical indications (n=480; 65.9%). 564 infants (17.6%) isolated a pathogen from their baseline blood culture, of which 62.9% (n=355) had a Gram-negative organism, predominantly Klebsiella pneumoniae (n=132) and Acinetobacter spp. (n=72). These leading Gram-negatives were both mostly resistant to WHO-recommended regimens, and also resistant to carbapenems in 32.6% and 71.4% of cases respectively. MRSA accounted for 61.1% of Staphylococcus aureus (n=54) isolates. Overall, 350/3204 infants died (11.3%; 95%CI 10.2-12.5%), with 17.7% case fatality rate among infants with a pathogen in baseline culture (95%CI 14.7-20.1%, n=99/564). Gram-negative infections accounted for 75/99 (75.8%) of pathogen-positive deaths, especially Klebsiella pneumoniae (n=28; 28.3%), and Acinetobacter spp. (n=24; 24.2%). Conclusion A very wide range of antibiotic regimens are now used to treat neonatal sepsis globally. There is common use of higher-level Watch antibiotics, frequent early switching and very infrequent de-escalation of therapy. Future hospital based neonatal sepsis trials will ideally need to account for the multiple regimens used as standard of care globally and include both empiric first line regimens and subsequent switching in the trial design.

Background There is limited data on antibiotic treatment in hospitalized neonates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to describe patterns of antibiotic use, pathogens, and clinical outcomes, and to develop a severity score predicting mortality in neonatal sepsis to inform future clinical trial design. Methods and findings Hospitalized infants <60 days with clinical sepsis were enrolled during 2018 to 2020 by 19 sites in 11 countries (mainly Asia and Africa). Prospective daily observational data was collected on clinical signs, supportive care, antibiotic treatment, microbiology, and 28-day mortality. Two prediction models were developed for (1) 28-day mortality from baseline variables (baseline NeoSep Severity Score); and (2) daily risk of death on IV antibiotics from daily updated assessments (NeoSep Recovery Score). Multivariable Cox regression models included a randomly selected 85% of infants, with 15% for validation. A total of 3,204 infants were enrolled, with median birth weight of 2,500 g (IQR 1,400 to 3,000) and postnatal age of 5 days (IQR 1 to 15). 206 different empiric antibiotic combinations were started in 3,141 infants, which were structured into 5 groups based on the World Health Organization (WHO) AWaRe classification. Approximately 25.9% (n = 814) of infants started WHO first line regimens (Group 1—Access) and 13.8% (n = 432) started WHO second-line cephalosporins (cefotaxime/ceftriaxone) (Group 2—“Low” Watch). The largest group (34.0%, n = 1,068) started a regimen providing partial extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)/pseudomonal coverage (piperacillin-tazobactam, ceftazidime, or fluoroquinolone-based) (Group 3—“Medium” Watch), 18.0% (n = 566) started a carbapenem (Group 4—“High” Watch), and 1.8% (n = 57) a Reserve antibiotic (Group 5, largely colistin-based), and 728/2,880 (25.3%) of initial regimens in Groups 1 to 4 were escalated, mainly to carbapenems, usually for clinical deterioration (n = 480; 65.9%). A total of 564/3,195 infants (17.7%) were blood culture pathogen positive, of whom 62.9% (n = 355) had a gram-negative organism, predominantly Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 132) or Acinetobacter spp. (n = 72). Both were commonly resistant to WHO-recommended regimens and to carbapenems in 43 (32.6%) and 50 (71.4%) of cases, respectively. MRSA accounted for 33 (61.1%) of 54 Staphylococcus aureus isolates. Overall, 350/3,204 infants died (11.3%; 95% CI 10.2% to 12.5%), 17.7% if blood cultures were positive for pathogens (95% CI 14.7% to 21.1%, n = 99/564). A baseline NeoSep Severity Score had a C-index of 0.76 (0.69 to 0.82) in the validation sample, with mortality of 1.6% (3/189; 95% CI: 0.5% to 4.6%), 11.0% (27/245; 7.7% to 15.6%), and 27.3% (12/44; 16.3% to 41.8%) in low (score 0 to 4), medium (5 to 8), and high (9 to 16) risk groups, respectively, with similar performance across subgroups. A related NeoSep Recovery Score had an area under the receiver operating curve for predicting death the next day between 0.8 and 0.9 over the first week. There was significant variation in outcomes between sites and external validation would strengthen score applicability. Conclusion Antibiotic regimens used in neonatal sepsis commonly diverge from WHO guidelines, and trials of novel empiric regimens are urgently needed in the context of increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The baseline NeoSep Severity Score identifies high mortality risk criteria for trial entry, while the NeoSep Recovery Score can help guide decisions on regimen change. NeoOBS data informed the NeoSep1 antibiotic trial (ISRCTN48721236), which aims to identify novel first- and second-line empiric antibiotic regimens for neonatal sepsis. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, (NCT03721302).