In order to analysis the impact of ship state on the navigational safety, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on fault tree of ship safety state is to be present in this paper. The fault tree of ship navigation state to be established using the software named Easydraw, after analyzing systematically influence factors of ship safety navigation, and the structure important degree of the basic event is calculated based on the fault tree, which made the main factors influencing the ship navigation safety clear.. With the analyzing results of the navigation state fault tree, several important factors such as speed, channel and visibility, to be regard as the main correlation factor evaluating ship safety state, and the mathematical model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on ship safety state to be established. The experiment is conducted in the YouShui river, the relevant parameters is obtained, using the GPS navigation system on board, and the navigation state is to be analyzed and evaluated by the mathematical model. The evaluation results shows that the evaluation model applied to the ship safety state is reliable and effective.
The factors affecting the maritime accidents are complicated. Digging up the factors and finding out the inherent laws,maritime accidents can be forecast in a short-term and medium-and-long-term.The paper analyzes the factors and discusses the BP neural network modeling process of maritime accidents based on influence factors. Through the validation, the forecast model of maritime accidents is feasible.
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