The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's future water availability, most of those are based on limited climate change scenarios despite the wide range of uncertainties in different climate model projections. This study aims to provide a better estimation of projected future streamflow for a combination of 18 climate change scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model of the basin and simulate the future water availability based on these climate change scenarios. Our results show that the simulated mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow of the basin is expected to increase in future. By the end of the 21st century, the projected increase in mean annual, mean dry season, mean wet season, and annual maximum streamflow is about 25, 178, 11, and 22%, respectively. We also demonstrate that this projected streamflow can be expressed as a multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin and would be very useful for policy makers to make informed decision regarding climate change adaptation.
The research paper aims at understanding the level of climate change risk of the Haor areas of Bangladesh. It follows a participatory approach, using Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and Key Informant Interview (KII) to identify important climate change induced hazards, assess the probability of occurrences of the hazards and level of their consequences. Using geo-spatial techniques, the paper prepares hazard risk maps and risk hotspot maps. Policy documents, previous researches, and Government statistics and reports helped to develop the concepts and planning of the research. The unparalleled hydro-ecological attributes of Haor areas pose both opportunities and constraints for the local population. Poverty, lack of basic infrastructure and amenities, awareness and external support have already put the people in Haor areas in a vulnerable situation while the recurring natural hazards and shifting pattern of climate are making the constraints nearly unmanageable. Excessive rainfall in the monsoon and drought in the dry season is affecting the farming and fishery-based communities the most. The community perceptions on hazards, their occurrences, consequences and relative importance of each hazard for the agriculture or fisheries sector in the study area have been collected from the FGDs and subsequently analyzed to produce individual and multi-hazard risk maps for the area based on scoring. This information is also used to rank the Upazillas in the study area depending on risk level. The community people were also asked to select the important elements or structural facilities at risk in their area needed for their life and livelihood.
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