The most recent assessments conducted by the International Energy Agency indicate that natural gas accounts for the majority of Nigeria’s fossil fuel-derived electricity generation, with crude oil serving mostly as a backup source. Fossil fuel-generated electricity represents 80% of the country’s total. In addition, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Nigeria in 2018 (101.3014 Mtons) demonstrated a 3.83% increase from 2017. The purpose of this study is to suggest an alternate energy supply mix to meet future electrical demand and reduce CO2 emissions in Nigeria. The Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) was used in this study to model two case situations of the energy supply systems in Nigeria to determine the best energy supply technology to meet future demand. The Simplified Approach to Estimating Electricity Generation’s External Costs and Impacts (SIMPACTS) code is also used to estimate the environmental impacts and resulting damage costs during normal operation of various electricity generation technologies. Results of the first scenario show that gas and oil power plants are the optimal choice for Nigeria to meet future energy needs with no bound on CO2 emission. If Nigeria adopts CO2 emission restrictions to comply with the Paris Agreement’s target of decreasing worldwide mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C, the best option is nuclear power plants (NPPs). The MESSAGE results demonstrate that both fossil fuels and NPPs are the optimal electricity-generating technologies to meet Nigeria’s future energy demand. The SIMPACTS code results demonstrate that NPPs have the lowest damage costs because of their low environmental impact during normal operation. Therefore, NPP technology is the most environmentally friendly technology and the best choice for the optimization of future electrical technology to meet the demand. The result from this study will serve as a reference source in modeling long-term energy mix therefore reducing CO2 emission in Nigeria.
Planning of wind power installations in large areas with good wind potential mostly necessitates clustering wind farms of comparable capacities in parcels nearby each others. The present work applies a methodology based on simple momentum theory to estimate the energy yield of a single wind turbine, wind farm and clustered farms in such areas. The effect of up-wind farms on farms down-wind is investigated using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) for two real projects separated by about 2.5 km in Zafarana area on Red Sea coast. The site terrain characteristics, meteorological data, turbine specifications and turbines spatial distribution are used to estimate the area's wind climatology, turbine's energy yield and the change in different operational parameters such as the thrust coefficient, capacity factor, wake losses and plant utilization time. The results; confirmed by the real production data, showed that the energy yield is not only affected by the wind turbines within the site, but also by neighboring wind farms, specially clustered ahead in the prevailing wind direction. Also, it highlights the importance of proper planning of land allocations for wind farms in large area to avoid penalizing existing projects by new ones.
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