Modeling insurance data using heavy-tailed distributions is of great interest for actuaries. Probability distributions present a description of risk exposure, where the level of exposure to the risk can be determined by “key risk indicators” that usually are functions of the model. Actuaries and risk managers often use such key risk indicators to determine the degree to which their companies are subject to particular aspects of risk, which arise from changes in underlying variables such as prices of equity, interest rates, or exchange rates. The present study proposes a new heavy-tailed exponential distribution that accommodates bathtub, upside-down bathtub, decreasing, decreasing-constant, and increasing hazard rates. Actuarial measures including value at risk, tail value at risk, tail variance, and tail variance premium are derived. A computational study for these actuarial measures is conducted, proving that the proposed distribution has a heavier tail as compared with the alpha power exponential, exponentiated exponential, and exponential distributions. We adopt six estimation approaches for estimating its parameters, and assess the performance of these estimators via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, an actuarial real data set is analyzed, proving that the proposed model can be used effectively to model insurance data as compared with fifteen competing distributions.

In this paper, we introduce a new flexible generator of continuous distributions called the transmuted Burr X-G (TBX-G) family to extend and increase the flexibility of the Burr X generator. The general statistical properties of the TBX-G family are calculated. One special sub-model, TBX-exponential distribution, is studied in detail. We discuss eight estimation approaches to estimating the TBX-exponential parameters, and numerical simulations are conducted to compare the suggested approaches based on partial and overall ranks. Based on our study, the Anderson–Darling estimators are recommended to estimate the TBX-exponential parameters. Using two skewed real data sets from the engineering sciences, we illustrate the importance and flexibility of the TBX-exponential model compared with other existing competing distributions.

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Over the past few months, the spread of the current COVID-19 epidemic has caused tremendous damage worldwide, and unstable many countries economically. Detailed scientific analysis of this event is currently underway to come. However, it is very important to have the right facts and figures to take all possible actions that are needed to avoid COVID-19. In the practice and application of big data sciences, it is always of interest to provide the best description of the data under consideration. The recent studies have shown the potential of statistical distributions in modeling data in applied sciences, especially in medical science. In this article, we continue to carry this area of research, and introduce a new statistical model called the arcsine modified Weibull distribution. The proposed model is introduced using the modified Weibull distribution with the arcsine-X approach which is based on the trigonometric strategy. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the new model are obtained and the performance these estimators are assessed by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, the effectiveness and utility of the arcsine modified Weibull distribution are demonstrated by modeling COVID-19 patients data. The data set represents the survival times of fifty-three patients taken from a hospital in China. The practical application shows that the proposed model out-classed the competitive models and can be chosen as a good candidate distribution for modeling COVID-19, and other related data sets.

The power XLindley (PXL) distribution is introduced in this study. It is a two-parameter distribution that extends the XLindley distribution established in this paper. Numerous statistical characteristics of the suggested model were determined analytically. The proposed model’s fuzzy dependability was statistically assessed. Numerous estimation techniques have been devised for the purpose of estimating the proposed model parameters. The behaviour of these factors was examined using randomly generated data and developed estimation approaches. The suggested model seems to be superior to its base model and other well-known and related models when applied to the COVID-19 data set.

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This article introduces a two-parameter flexible extension of the Burr-Hatke distribution using the inverse-power transformation. The failure rate of the new distribution can be an increasing shape, a decreasing shape, or an upside-down bathtub shape. Some of its mathematical properties are calculated. Ten estimation methods, including classical and Bayesian techniques, are discussed to estimate the model parameters. The Bayes estimators for the unknown parameters, based on the squared error, general entropy, and linear exponential loss functions, are provided. The ranking and behavior of these methods are assessed by simulation results with their partial and overall ranks. Finally, the flexibility of the proposed distribution is illustrated empirically using two real-life datasets. The analyzed data shows that the introduced distribution provides a superior fit than some important competing distributions such as the Weibull, Fréchet, gamma, exponential, inverse log-logistic, inverse weighted Lindley, inverse Pareto, inverse Nakagami-M, and Burr-Hatke distributions.

Actuaries are interested in modeling actuarial data using loss models that can be adopted to describe risk exposure. This paper introduces a new flexible extension of the log-logistic distribution, called the extended log-logistic (Ex-LL) distribution, to model heavy-tailed insurance losses data. The Ex-LL hazard function exhibits an upside-down bathtub shape, an increasing shape, a J shape, a decreasing shape, and a reversed-J shape. We derived five important risk measures based on the Ex-LL distribution. The Ex-LL parameters were estimated using different estimation methods, and their performances were assessed using simulation results. Finally, the performance of the Ex-LL distribution was explored using two types of real data from the engineering and insurance sciences. The analyzed data illustrated that the Ex-LL distribution provided an adequate fit compared to other competing distributions such as the log-logistic, alpha-power log-logistic, transmuted log-logistic, generalized log-logistic, Marshall–Olkin log-logistic, inverse log-logistic, and Weibull generalized log-logistic distributions.