The current research article analyzes the impact of changes in real exchange rate upon external trade balance of Sudan during the period 1978-2017. It employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, impulse response functions and Granger causality test. The empirical findings indicate that exchange rate devaluations have no impact on the merchandize trade balance, thus evidence in favor of the J-curve pattern was not found. Granger causality test runs one-way from trade ratio to real exchange rate and not the other way. Thus, the results can be considered as an additional contribution to evidence stated in literature that focused a vibrant range of economies. These findings are appropriate for policy making in Sudan as well as in various developing countries since the focal point is major trade balance deficit.

The main objective of the paper is to examine the relationship between bank credit and the major macroeconomic variables of Saudi Arabia during the period from 1993 to 2019. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run effects of the major macroeconomic variables on bank credit. The study revealed that the real exchange rate and money supply have positive long-run effects on bank credit compared to the negative effects of inflation on bank credit. Gross domestic product (GDP) has a negative effect on total bank credit, which is in conflict with the Keynesian view. In the short run, the effect of GDP on bank credit is negative, whereas inflation has a positive influence on bank credit. Based on the findings, the study suggests some expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, such as raising asset prices and lowering the costs of borrowing, increasing spending and cutting taxes to produce budget deficits for stabilizing the financial system and increasing national income to promote sustainable and stable growth in bank credit.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nominal exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Sudan from 1978–2017. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is employed. The analysis is based on impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs). The dynamics of the cointegrated system can be investigated via the variance decompositions and IRFs. The findings confirm that the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Sudan is incomplete, and the empirical results also show that the domestic price index is predominantly caused by foreign price in both the short and long runs, in addition to the import price index and the nominal exchange rate; the exchange rate shock has a negative effect on the domestic price. Furthermore, FEVDs analysis illustrates that the variation in domestic price is primarily determined by the import prices, while changes in the exchange rate are primarily determined by the exchange rate itself.

The current study analyzes the relationship between Sudan's income growth and exports from 1970 to 2020. The system of equations using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been employed. The ARDL results showed that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables considered in the estimated model. The researchers observed a negative lagged error-correction term coefficient, which is highly significant in all cases supporting cointegration. The result reveals the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP, export, import, labor force, and trade policy. This confirms that the export-led growth hypothesis is valid for Sudan. Thus, the most essential conclusion is that the economy’s export expansion strategy is completely dependent on the imports of raw materials and capital inputs and the kind of goods being exported. The coefficient of import is of significance, which offers strong support for the import compression hypothesis. The most important policy implication of the findings is the implementation of an appropriate and optimal approach that can boost exports to increase economic growth substantially. Policy-makers should focus on export diversification strategies and invest more in Sudan’s ability to provide value-added services to meet international export demand.

The purpose of this research paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate, income and money supply on the trade balance of Sudan over a fifty-year period from 1970 to 2020. The empirical model for this investigation is developed using a cointegration approach and error-correction technique to specifically examine the effects of currency devaluation on the trade balance of Sudan with its major partners. The bounds test shows that the variables of interest are bound together in the long-run. The associated equilibrium correction is significant, thus confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. Moreover, to analyze the dynamic interactions of the variables included in the estimated model, variance decomposition is employed. The study results from the variance decomposition show that innovations in foreign income contribute highly to the forecast error variance of the trade balance compared with other explanatory variables in the short-run. In contrast, the domestic money supply contributes highly to the trade balance compared with other variables in the long-run. A key finding of the study suggests that the devaluation of Sudan’s currency is not an appropriate step toward improving the country's trade balance position.

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