In Latvia, livestock depredation by wolves has increased during the last two decades. Most of the attacks occur in summer and autumn during wolf hunting season. Use of effective preventive measures in Latvia is low, and farmers primarily rely on wolf hunting as a depredation reduction measure. The total numbers of wolf attacks and number of affected sheep per year in regional forest management units were analyzed in relation to the estimated wolf density, extent of culling, and proportion of juveniles, as well as the sheep density and estimated number of wild prey animals. The response variables (number of attacks and affected sheep per year) were modelled using a negative binomial regression, testing the effects of every covariate separately and building models from the significant covariates. The depredation level was related to sheep density and estimated wolf population size. No reducing effect was found for culling, and an even greater depredation rate was expected when the proportion of culled wolves increased. In addition, no significant effect was associated with the other covariates. However, greater numbers of affected sheep were expected at higher red deer density, suggesting increased opportunistic livestock depredation when red deer locally outcompete roe deer, the preferred wolf prey in Latvia.
In Latvia, livestock depredation by wolves has increased during the last two decades. Most attacks had occurred in summer and autumn within wolf hunting season. Cumulative numbers of wolf attacks and number of affected sheep per year at regional forest management units were analyzed in relation to estimated wolf density, extent of culling and proportion of juveniles, as well as sheep density and estimated number of wild prey. The response variables (cumulative number of attacks and cumulative number of affected sheep) were modelled by a negative binomial regression, testing effects of every covariate separately and building models from the significant covariates. Depredation level was related to sheep density and estimated wolf population size. No reducing effect was found for culling, and even greater depredation rate was expected at higher proportions of culled wolves. Estimated number of wild prey or proportion of juvenile wolves had an insignificant effect. However, greater numbers of affected sheep were expected at higher red deer density, suggesting increased opportunistic livestock depredation when the red deer may locally outcompete the preferred wolf prey – roe deer.
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