Microbes in the wild face highly variable and unpredictable environments and are naturally selected for their average growth rate across environments. Apart from using sensory regulatory systems to adapt in a targeted manner to changing environments, microbes employ bet-hedging strategies where cells in an isogenic population switch stochastically between alternative phenotypes. Yet, bet-hedging suffers from a fundamental trade-off: Increasing the phenotype-switching rate increases the rate at which maladapted cells explore alternative phenotypes but also increases the rate at which cells switch out of a well-adapted state. Consequently, it is currently believed that bet-hedging strategies are effective only when the number of possible phenotypes is limited and when environments last for sufficiently many generations. However, recent experimental results show that gene expression noise generally decreases with growth rate, suggesting that phenotype-switching rates may systematically decrease with growth rate. Such growth rate dependent stability (GRDS) causes cells to be more explorative when maladapted and more phenotypically stable when well-adapted, and we show that GRDS can almost completely overcome the trade-off that limits bet-hedging, allowing for effective adaptation even when environments are diverse and change rapidly. We further show that even a small decrease in switching rates of faster-growing phenotypes can substantially increase long-term fitness of bet-hedging strategies. Together, our results suggest that stochastic strategies may play an even bigger role for microbial adaptation than hitherto appreciated.

Microbes in the wild face highly variable and unpredictable environments, and are naturally selected for their average growth rate across environments. Apart from using sensory-regulatory systems to adapt in a targeted manner to changing environments, microbes employ bet-hedging strategies where cells in an isogenic population switch stochastically between alternative phenotypes. Yet, bet-hedging suffers from a fundamental trade-off: increasing the phenotype switching rate increases the rate at which maladapted cells explore alternative phenotypes, but also increases the rate at which cells switch out of a well-adapted state. Consequently, it is currently believed that bet-hedging strategies are only effective when the number of possible phenotypes is limited and when environments last for sufficiently many generations. However, recent experimental results show that gene expression noise generally decreases with growth rate, suggesting that phenotype switching rates may systematically decrease with growth rate. We here show that such growth rate dependent stability (GRDS) can almost completely overcome the trade-off that limits bet-hedging, allowing for effective adaptation even when environments are diverse and change rapidly. GRDS allows cells to be more explorative when maladapted, and more phenotypically stable when well-adapted. We further show that even a small decrease in switching rates of faster growing phenotypes can substantially increase long-term fitness of bet-hedging strategies. Together, our results suggest that stochastic strategies may play an even bigger role for microbial adaptation than hitherto appreciated.

Living cells can leverage correlations in environmental fluctuations to predict the future environment and mount a response ahead of time. To this end, cells need to encode the past signal into the output of the intracellular network from which the future input is predicted. Yet, storing information is costly while not all features of the past signal are equally informative on the future input signal. Here, we show, for two classes of input signals, that cellular networks can reach the fundamental bound on the predictive information as set by the information extracted from the past signal: push-pull networks can reach this information bound for Markovian signals, while networks that take a temporal derivative can reach the bound for predicting the future derivative of non-Markovian signals. However, the bits of past information that are most informative about the future signal are also prohibitively costly. As a result, the optimal system that maximizes the predictive information for a given resource cost is, in general, not at the information bound. Applying our theory to the chemotaxis network of Escherichia coli reveals that its adaptive kernel is optimal for predicting future concentration changes over a broad range of background concentrations, and that the system has been tailored to predicting these changes in shallow gradients.