The purpose of this article is to study the occurrence of the Lucas paradox in the region of Central-Eastern Europe. According to the research conducted by Robert Lucas (1990), the direction of the international capital flows is different than the neoclassical theory suggests. The capital does not flow from the richer, high-income economies to the poorer, but rather stays in those with the higher capital resources or flows to the other ones with similar level of GDP. The paper verifies whether the paradox appears in the region, in the way that it examines the impact of the GDP on the FDI inflows. Additionally, the study implements few basic models with factors that may potentially resolve the puzzle of the capital flows. The study method is based on panel data estimations, initially using pooled OLS, and subsequently using fixed or random effects models as appropriate. The examined economies are the member states of the European Union, from the region of Central-Eastern Europe, and the examined years are 2000-2018. Based on the literature, and the widely emphasized need for differentiating between the types of international capital flows, the article focus is on the foreign direct investment only, as they constitute large part of the whole global capital flows. Results of the research confirm the presence of the paradox in the region in the examined period. Even though the estimation of the additional models helps to remove the effects of the paradox for the region, it does not fully explain under which circumstances the neoclassical theory would be applicable. None of the applied models reverses the sign of the GDP variable to negative, keeping it statistically significant at the same time.
The main objective of the paper is to examine the potential factors which, according to the literature, may be impacting the structure of exports by allowing more exports from high and medium-high research and development intensive sectors. In the paper, particular emphasis is put on the foreign direct investment’s role in export advancement. Apart from foreign direct investment inflows, the research examines the impact of trade openness, gross capital formation, gross domestic savings together with research and development and human capital related factors, on the phenomenon. The research group consists of eight Central – Eastern European economies, accessed to the European Union in 2004. The statistical data utilized in the research is retrieved from commonly available statistical databases. In the study ordinary least squares panel data regression is applied. Three separate models are estimated for three varying time frames (within the years 2000 – 2018), depending on the variables data availability. Obtained results suggest a strong positive correlation between trade openness, investment factors (savings and capital formation) expressed in growth rates, and high and medium-high research and development intensive manufacturing exports. Even though foreign direct investment inflows are identified as statistically significant in two of the estimated models, the coefficient for the variable is low. The results are partially consistent with the literature on the topic. Trade openness and foreign direct investment inflows have both been identified as relevant factors in the previously conducted studies. In contrary to previous findings, the investment-related macroeconomic factors, such as gross domestic savings and gross capital formation appear as significant variables. Also, in the estimated models, factors related to research and development have no relevance. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, International Business, International Trade, Exports, High Technology Exports
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