The accurate prediction of the binding affinities of ligands to proteins is a major goal in drug discovery and personalized medicine. The time taken to make such predictions is of similar importance to their accuracy, precision, and reliability. In the past few years, an ensemble based molecular dynamics approach has been proposed that provides a route to reliable predictions of free energies based on the molecular mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann surface area method which meets the requirements of speed, accuracy, precision, and reliability. Here, we describe an equivalent methodology based on thermodynamic integration to substantially improve the speed, accuracy, precision, and reliability of calculated relative binding free energies. We report the performance of the method when applied to a diverse set of protein targets and ligands. The results are in very good agreement with experimental data (90% of calculations agree to within 1 kcal/mol), while the method is reproducible by construction. Statistical uncertainties of the order of 0.5 kcal/mol or less are achieved. We present a systematic account of how the uncertainty in the predictions may be estimated.

Binding free energies of bromodomain inhibitors are calculated with recently formulated approaches, namely ESMACS (enhanced sampling of molecular dynamics with approximation of continuum solvent) and TIES (thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling). A set of compounds is provided by GlaxoSmithKline, which represents a range of chemical functionality and binding affinities. The predicted binding free energies exhibit a good Spearman correlation of 0.78 with the experimental data from the 3-trajectory ESMACS, and an excellent correlation of 0.92 from the TIES approach where applicable. Given access to suitable high end computing resources and a high degree of automation, we can compute individual binding affinities in a few hours with precisions no greater than 0.2 kcal/mol for TIES, and no larger than 0.34 and 1.71 kcal/mol for the 1- and 3-trajectory ESMACS approaches.

Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand–protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation—an ensemble of independent MD simulations—which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

A central quantity of interest in molecular biology and medicine is the free energy of binding of a molecule to a target biomacromolecule. Until recently, the accurate prediction of binding affinity had been widely regarded as out of reach of theoretical methods owing to the lack of reproducibility of the available methods, not to mention their complexity, computational cost and time-consuming procedures. The lack of reproducibility stems primarily from the chaotic nature of classical molecular dynamics (MD) and the associated extreme sensitivity of trajectories to their initial conditions. Here, we review computational approaches for both relative and absolute binding free energy calculations, and illustrate their application to a diverse set of ligands bound to a range of proteins with immediate relevance in a number of medical domains. We focus on ensemble-based methods which are essential in order to compute statistically robust results, including two we have recently developed, namely thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling and enhanced sampling of MD with an approximation of continuum solvent. Together, these form a set of rapid, accurate, precise and reproducible free energy methods. They can be used in real-world problems such as hit-to-lead and lead optimization stages in drug discovery, and in personalized medicine. These applications show that individual binding affinities equipped with uncertainty quantification may be computed in a few hours on a massive scale given access to suitable high-end computing resources and workflow automation. A high level of accuracy can be achieved using these approaches.

The accurate prediction of the binding affinity changes of drugs caused by protein mutations is a major goal in clinical personalized medicine. We have developed an ensemble-based free energy approach called thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling (TIES), which yields accurate, precise, and reproducible binding affinities. TIES has been shown to perform well for predictions of free energy differences of congeneric ligands to a wide range of target proteins. We have recently introduced variants of TIES, which incorporate the enhanced sampling technique REST2 (replica exchange with solute tempering) and the free energy estimator MBAR (Bennett acceptance ratio). Here we further extend the TIES methodology to study relative binding affinities caused by protein mutations when bound to a ligand, a variant which we call TIES-PM. We apply TIES-PM to fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) to investigate binding free energy changes upon protein mutations. The results show that TIES-PM with REST2 successfully captures a large conformational change and generates correct free energy differences caused by a gatekeeper mutation located in the binding pocket. Simulations without REST2 fail to overcome the energy barrier between the conformations, and hence the results are highly sensitive to the initial structures. We also discuss situations where REST2 does not improve the accuracy of predictions.

The TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling) protocol is a formally exact alchemical approach in computational chemistry to the calculation of relative binding free energies. The validity of TIES relies on the correctness of matching atoms across compared pairs of ligands, laying the foundation for the transformation along an alchemical pathway. We implement a flexible topology superimposition algorithm which uses an exhaustive joint-traversal for computing the largest common component(s). The algorithm is employed to enable matching and morphing of partial rings in the TIES protocol along with a validation study using 55 transformations and five different proteins from our previous work. We find that TIES 20 with the RESP charge system, using the new superimposition algorithm, reproduces the previous results with mean unsigned error of 0.75 kcal/mol with respect to the experimental data. Enabling the morphing of partial rings decreases the size of the alchemical region in the dualtopology transformations resulting in a significant improvement in the prediction precision. We find that increasing the ensemble size from 5 to 20 replicas per λ window only has a minimal impact on the accuracy. However, the non-normal nature of the relative free energy distributions underscores the importance of ensemble simulation. We further compare the results with the AM1-BCC charge system and show that it improves agreement with the experimental data by slightly over 10%. This improvement is partly due to AM1-BCC affecting only the charges of the atoms local to the mutation, which translates to even fewer morphed atoms, consequently reducing issues with sampling and therefore ensemble averaging. TIES 20, in conjunction with the enablement of ring morphing, reduces the size of the alchemical region and significantly improves the precision of the predicted free energies.

Optimization of ligand binding affinity to the target protein of interest is a primary objective in small-molecule drug discovery. Until now, the prediction of binding affinities by computational methods has not been widely applied in the drug discovery process, mainly because of its lack of accuracy and reproducibility as well as the long turnaround times required to obtain results. Herein we report on a collaborative study that compares tropomyosin receptor kinase A (TrkA) binding affinity predictions using two recently formulated fast computational approaches, namely, Enhanced Sampling of Molecular dynamics with Approximation of Continuum Solvent (ESMACS) and Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling (TIES), to experimentally derived TrkA binding affinities for a set of Pfizer pan-Trk compounds. ESMACS gives precise and reproducible results and is applicable to highly diverse sets of compounds. It also provides detailed chemical insight into the nature of ligand-protein binding. TIES can predict and thus optimize more subtle changes in binding affinities between compounds of similar structure. Individual binding affinities were calculated in a few hours, exhibiting good correlations with the experimental data of 0.79 and 0.88 from the ESMACS and TIES approaches, respectively. The speed, level of accuracy, and precision of the calculations are such that the affinity predictions can be used to rapidly explain the effects of compound modifications on TrkA binding affinity. The methods could therefore be used as tools to guide lead optimization efforts across multiple prospective structurally enabled programs in the drug discovery setting for a wide range of compounds and targets.

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.