Abstract. Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease strongly associated with poverty. Treatment is problematic and no vaccine is available. Ethiopia has seen new outbreaks in areas previously not known to be endemic, often with co-infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with rates reaching 5.6% of the cases. The present study concerns the development of a risk model based on environmental factors using geographical information systems (GIS), statistical analysis and modelling. Odds ratio (OR) of bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the relative importance of environmental factors, accepting P ≤0.056 as the inclusion level for the model's environmental variables. When estimating risk from the viewpoint of geographical surface, slope, elevation and annual rainfall were found to be good predictors of CL presence based on both probabilistic and weighted overlay approaches. However, when considering Ethiopia as whole, a minor difference was observed between the two methods with the probabilistic technique giving a 22.5% estimate, while that of weighted overlay approach was 19.5%. Calculating the population according to the land surface estimated by the latter method, the total Ethiopian population at risk for CL was estimated at 28,955,035, mainly including people in the highlands of the regional states of Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region, one of the nine ethnic divisions in Ethiopia. Our environmental risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 90.4%. The approach proposed here can be replicated for other diseases to facilitate implementation of evidence-based, integrated disease control activities.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL, Kala-azar) is one of the growing public health challenges in Ethiopia with over 3.2 million people at risk and estimated up to 4000 new cases per year. Historically, VL was known as the diseases of the lowlanders; in the lower and upper Kola agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia. The 2005–07 out breaks in highlands of Libo Kemkem and Fogera, in the Woina Degas, that affected thousands and claimed the life of hundreds misdiagnosed as drug resistance malaria marked that VL is no more the problem of the lowlanders. The Kola (lower and upper) and the Woina Dega are the most productive agroecological zones, supporting both the ongoing and planned expansions of large or small scale agriculture and/or agriculture based industries. Thus, the (re)emergence of VL is not only a public health and social problem but also have a direct implication on the country’s economy and further development. Thus is high time for its control and/or elimination. Yet, the available data seem incomplete to plan for a cost-effective and efficient VL control strategy: there is a need to update data on vector behaviour in specific ecosystems and the roles of domestic animals need to be ascertained. The effectiveness and social acceptability of available vector control tools need be evaluated. There is a need for identifying animal reservoir(s), or establish the absence of zoonosis in Ethiopia. The planning of prevention of (re)emergence and spread of VL to areas adjacent to endemic foci need be supported with information from spatio-temporal mapping. In affected communities, available data showed that their knowledge about VL is generally very low. Thus, well designed studies to identify risk factors, as well as better tools for social mobilization with the understanding of their knowledge, aptitude and practice towards VL are necessary.

BackgroundCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the endemic and neglected diseases known to exist in Ethiopian highlands. However, little is known about its epidemiological characteristics. Hence, this study was initiated and conducted from November 2011 to April 2012 to assess the epidemiological situation of CL in Saesie Tsaeda-emba District.MethodsA cross sectional design was employed in six randomly selected Peasant associations and a house to house survey was carried out in the District. Detailed clinical assessment, and smear and culture for Leishmania parasite detection were done to confirm clinical suspension. Polymerase Chain Reaction and Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of the ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS-1) sequences was used to type isolates. Sandfly collection was also conducted in possible micro-habitats of the target areas.ResultsThe overall prevalence of CL in the District was 14.0% (6.7% for active lesion and 7.3% for scar) with the highest prevalence amongst the age group of 10–19 years. Field isolates typed were L. aethiopica. Environmental and host risk factors significantly associated with CL distribution were age, study Peasant associations, presence of cave/gorge, walls with cracks and/or holes, presence of hyrax, animal burrow, animal dung and farm land near to residents’ houses. Five phlebotomine sandflies, Phlebotomus longipes, Sergentomyia bedfordi, S.africana, S.schwetzi and S.antenata were captured.ConclusionAll the precipitating factors in the area are indicative of the public health importance of CL although there has been little attention given. The present study is a starter for wider investigation into the mode of its transmission, incrimination of sandfly vectors and possible animal reservoirs. Detailed information will be the basis to launch effective control of CL in the area.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0758-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Abstract. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease strongly influenced by environmental factors, has (re)-emerged in Ethiopia during the last two decades and is currently of increasing public health concern. Based on VL incidence in each locality (kebele) documented from federal or regional health bureaus and/or hospital records in the country, geographical information systems (GIS), coupled with binary and multivariate logistic regression methods, were employed to develop a risk map for Ethiopia with respect to VL based on soil type, altitude, rainfall, slope and temperature. The risk model was subsequently validated in selected sites. This environmental VL risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 86% with mean land surface temperature and soil type found to be the best predictors of VL. The total population at risk was estimated at 3.2 million according to the national population census in 2007. The approach presented here should facilitate the identification of priority areas for intervention and the monitoring of trends as well as providing input for further epidemiological and applied research with regard to this disease in Ethiopia.

Visceral Leishmaniasis is becoming a major public health problem both in terms of geographical spread and incidence in Ethiopia although failed to attract the attention it deserves. Magnitude,public health impact and dynamics of the disease in Ethiopia are not well studied. Hence,this study was conducted in Welkait district to determine public awareness about the disease. Wekait is a highly productive area having a conducive environment for the spread of the parasite. A cross sectional study was employed in purposively selected sub-districts in which house to house survey was carried out using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. A total of 288 participants (264 household heads and 24 health professionals) were interviewed to assess their knowledge, attitude and practice towards visceral leishmaniasis. Overall score of the participants showed that 59%, 95% and 53% of them were knowledgeable have positive attitude and good practice on visceral leishmaniasis, respectively. Sex, educational status and history of travel profile showed significant association with the knowledge of participants. The study also revealed a gap in the knowledge and practices of health professionals about the disease. The present study highlighted an overall positive attitude regarding the disease. However, the gap in knowledge and poor practice calls for an intervention to improve the public awareness regarding visceral leishmaniasis in the study area.