Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950-2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2-4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from 2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector's global invasion potential.

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Introduction: Evidence on the interchangeability between the two pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs)pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13)is limited but growing. We performed a systematic literature review to summarize evidence for PHiD-CV/PCV13 interchangeability regarding immunogenicity, safety, and effectiveness against pneumococcal disease. Areas covered: Seven records disclosing results from six studies on PHiD-CV/PCV13 interchangeability were identified. Four clinical trials showed that mixed schedules with a PHiD-CV-to-PCV13 switch at boosting or a PCV13-to-PHiD-CV switch during priming or at boosting were immunogenic with no apparent safety concerns. Two observational studies in the context of a programmatic PHiD-CV-to-PCV13 switch showed similarly high effectiveness against overall invasive pneumococcal disease with a mixed PHiD-CV/PCV13 schedule and a PCV13-only schedule. No effectiveness data for a PCV13-to-PHiD-CV switch and no immunogenicity/safety/effectiveness data for a PHiD-CV-to-PCV13 switch during priming were found. Expert opinion: For epidemiological or programmatic reasons, several local/national authorities have switched PCVs in their immunization programs. Consequently, children have received mixed schedules. Although herd immunity may obscure the individual effect, the limited data are reassuring. Additional evidence from these settingsespecially effectiveness or impact datamay provide the necessary information for authorities to make informed decisions on interchanging PCVs.

In 2010, a 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) was introduced in the Brazilian national immunization program; the 3 + 1 dose schedule was replaced by a 2 + 1 dose schedule in 2016. This systematic review presents the latest published evidence (2015-2020) on the impact after 10-year use of PHiD-CV in Brazil from a total of 29 publications. Overall, the PHiD-CV program had a positive impact on the morbidity and mortality associated with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia and acute otitis media (AOM) in children <5 years-old. A reduction in the vaccine-type invasive disease was observed in all-ages; suggesting indirect protection unvaccinated older children and adults. The occurrence of non-vaccine type disease was evidenced in some studies. Higher vaccination coverage is required at national and state level for sustained population impact. Given the change in the vaccination schedule and the dynamics of pneumococcal disease epidemiology, continuous surveillance is warranted.

Introduction: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, especially amongst young children and the elderly. Childhood implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) significantly reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), while several non-vaccine serotypes remained substantial.Although there is evidence of the impact of higher-valent PCVs on serotype 19A, 19A IPD burden and antibiotic resistance remain a major concern post-vaccination. Areas covered:We performed a systematic literature review to analyze the frequency and clonal distribution of serotype 19A isolates in the pre-and post-PCV era worldwide providing a scientific background on the factors that influence multi-drug resistance in pneumococcal isolates.Expert opinion: Serotype 19A IPD incidence increased in all regions following the introduction of the 7-valent PCV. The higher-valent PCVs have reduced the rates of 19A IPD isolates, but several circulating strains with diverse antibiotic resistance prevailed.Heterogeneous clonal distribution in serotype 19A was observed within countries and regions, irrespective of higher-valent PCV used. Increase of 19A isolates from pre-to postvaccination periods was associated with frequently occurring serotype switching events and with the prevalence of multi-drug resistant strains. Rational antibiotic policies must be implemented to control the emergence of resistance.

Introduction:The risk of herpes zoster (HZ) increases with age. In countries with an ageing population such as Mexico, a rise in the risk of HZ and complications is expected. The goal of this study was to provide an updated estimate of the potential burden of HZ and associated complications in Mexico. Methods: A retrospective database study was performed using data from the national surveillance database of the Ministry of Health

Disease surveillance data are needed to monitor trends in disease activity, inform decision-making in public health and evaluate disease prevention/control measures. The Sistema Regional de Vacunas (SIREVA) supports laboratory-based surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Latin American countries, providing information on identification, distribution, and anti-microbial susceptibility of pneumococcal strains. We estimated the proportion of pneumococcal meningitis and sepsis/bacteremia cases captured by SIREVA, by comparing the number of SIREVA-reported isolates in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico with the estimated expected number of cases based on regional estimates of disease incidence. In all six countries, the number of isolates reported by SIREVA was consistently lower than the number of cases expected, across all years with data available. The proportion of SIREVA-reported isolates was highest in Chile (43-83%) and lowest in Mexico (1.4-3.5%). Passive surveillance systems such as SIREVA are important tools for monitoring circulating strains that could be related to pneumococcal disease, but our results show that SIREVA is likely to underestimate pneumococcal disease incidence. This under-reporting will limit the precision of surveillance data in monitoring changes in the incidence of IPD after vaccine introduction, and this should be considered when assessing the impact of vaccination programs.

Background Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is a leading cause of viral hepatitis in children, yet the HAV vaccine is not included in the national immunization program (NIP) in Mexico. This study addresses an identified evidence gap of the burden of hepatitis A disease, complications, and associated costs in Mexico by analyzing surveillance and healthcare data. Data review included disease morbidity (incidence and hospitalization), mortality, and healthcare resource utilization costs. Methods In this observational, retrospective database study, we conducted a systematic screening, extraction, and analysis of outcome data from the national surveillance system in Mexico from January 2000 to December 2019. Results During the analysis period (2000–2019), the average incidence rate/year of HAV cases was 14.7 (5.4–21.5) per 100,000 inhabitants. Children 1–9 years of age (YoA) had the highest average incidence rate/year with 47.8 (14.7–74.5). The average hospitalization rate/year due to HAV infection was 5.8% (2.9–9.6%). Although the highest burden of HAV continued to be in children (1–9 YoA), an increase in incidence and hospitalizations (with complications) in older age groups (≥ 10–64 YoA) was observed. The annual average fatality rate was estimated to be 0.44% (0.26–0.83%) of which 28.8% of deaths were concentrated in adults ≥ 65 YoA. The total direct costs of medical attention due to HAV and related complications were estimated at $382 million Mexican pesos. Conclusion The overall results suggest an uptrend in HAV infections in adolescents/adults compared to children in Mexico. Therefore, as the overall incidence risk of HAV infection decreases, the mean age of infection increases. This consequently increases the risk of severity and complications in older age groups, thus increasing the demand for healthcare resources. Our findings provide evidence for including the inactivated HAV vaccine in the Mexican NIP.