This study analyzes the potential of deep learning using probabilistic artificial neural networks (ANNs) for post-processing ensemble precipitation forecasts at four observation locations. We split the precipitation forecast problem into two tasks: estimating the probability of precipitation and predicting the hourly precipitation. We then compare the performance with classical statistical post-processing (logistical regression and GLM). ANNs show a higher performance at three of the four stations for estimating the probability of precipitation and at all stations for predicting the hourly precipitation. Further, two more general ANN models are trained using the merged data from all four stations. These general ANNs exhibit an increase in performance compared to the station-specific ANNs at most stations. However, they show a significant decay in performance at one of the stations at estimating the hourly precipitation. The general models seem capable of learning meaningful interactions in the data and generalizing these to improve the performance at other sites, which also causes the loss of local information at one station. Thus, this study indicates the potential of deep learning in weather forecasting workflows.
Abstract. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are atmospheric simulations that imitate the dynamics of the atmosphere and provide high-quality forecasts. One of the most significant limitations of NWP is the elevated amount of computational resources required for its functioning, which limits the spatial and temporal resolution of the outputs. Traditional meteorological techniques to increase the resolution are uniquely based on information from a limited group of interest variables. In this study, we offer an alternative approach to the task where we generate precipitation maps based on the complete set of variables of the NWP to generate high-resolution and short-time precipitation predictions. To achieve this, five different deep learning models were trained and evaluated: a baseline, U-Net, two deconvolution networks and one conditional generative model (Conditional Generative Adversarial Network; CGAN). A total of 20 independent random initializations were performed for each of the models. The predictions were evaluated using skill scores based on mean absolute error (MAE) and linear error in probability space (LEPS), equitable threat score (ETS), critical success index (CSI) and frequency bias after applying several thresholds. The models showed a significant improvement in predicting precipitation, showing the benefits of including the complete information from the NWP. The algorithms doubled the resolution of the predictions and corrected an over-forecast bias from the input information. However, some new models presented new types of bias: U-Net tended to mid-range precipitation events, and the deconvolution models favored low rain events and generated some spatial smoothing. The CGAN offered the highest-quality precipitation forecast, generating realistic outputs and indicating possible future research paths.
Abstract. Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) are atmospheric simulations that imitate the dynamics of the atmosphere and provide high-quality forecasts. One of the most significant limitations of NWP is the elevated amount of computational resources required for its functioning, which limits the spatial and temporal resolution of the outputs. Traditional meteorological techniques to increase the resolution are based uniquely on information from a limited group of interest variables. In this study, we offer an alternative approach to the task where we generate precipitation maps based on the complete set of variables of the NWP to generate high-resolution and short-time precipitation predictions. To achieve this, five different deep learning models were trained and evaluated: baseline, U-Net, two deconvolutional networks, and one conditional generative model (CGAN). A total of 20 independent random initializations were performed for each of the models. The predictions were evaluated using MAE and LEPS-based skill scores, ETS, CSI, and frequency bias after applying several thresholds. The models showed a significant improvement in predicting precipitation showing the benefits of including the complete information from the NWP. The algorithms increased the resolution of the predictions and corrected an over-forecast bias from the input information. However, some new models presented new types of bias: U-Net tended to mid-range precipitation events, and the deconvolutional models favored low rain events and generated some spatial smoothing. The CGAN offered the highest quality precipitation forecast generating realistic outputs and indicating possible future research paths.
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