The tidal circulation patterns in the Terminos Lagoon were studied based on the analysis of 1 year of measurements and numerical simulations using a baroclinic 3D hydrodynamic model, the MARS3D. A gauging network was installed consisting of six self-recording pressure-temperature sensors, a tide gauge station and two current profilers, with pressure and temperature sensors moored in the main lagoon inlets. Model simulations were validated against current and sea level observations and were used to analyse the circulation patterns caused by the tidal forcing. The numerical model was forced with eight harmonic components, four diurnal (K 1 , O 1 , P 1 , Q 1 ) and four semi-diurnal (M 2 , S 2 , N 2 , K 2 ), extracted from the TPX0.7 database. The tidal patterns in the study area vary from mixed, mainly diurnal in the two main inlets of the lagoon, to diurnal in its interior. The tidal residual circulation inside the lagoon is dominated by a cyclonic gyre. The results indicate a net flux from the southwest Ciudad del Carmen inlet (CdC) towards the northeast Puerto Real inlet (PtR) along the southern side of the lagoon and the opposite in the northern side. The results indicate two areas of strong currents in the vicinity of the inlets and weak currents inside the lagoon. The area of strong currents in the vicinity of the CdC inlet is larger than that observed in the PtR inlet. Nevertheless, the current analysis indicates that the highest current speeds, which can reach a magnitude of 1.9 m s −1 , occurred in PtR. A further analysis of the tide distortion in the inlets revealed that both passages are ebb dominated.
Aquatic SciencesGlobal climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity variation in a tropical coastal lagoon (Laguna de Terminos, Mexico).--Manuscript Draft-- Abstract:The wide range of ecological goods and services provided by tropical coastal lagoons and wetlands are under considerable pressure due to the synergistic effects of local anthropogenic impact and global climate change. Salinity is an essential ecological driver which depends on the balance between marine and estuarine inputs, and the ongoing decline in fisheries recruitment in the Gulf of Mexico has been linked to environmental degradation of coastal ecosystems, among which long-term changes in salinity is a potential key factor. As part of a joint study of the wide and shallow coastal lagoon of Terminos in south eastern Mexico, we established that salinity variability was directly related to river discharge variability. Minimum discharge from the Usumacinta River and its tributary the Palizada River during the wet season of 2009 maintained led to very unusually high salinity in the lagoon. Data collected over the past 60 years revealed a sustained long-term increase in river flow rates in the Usumacinta watershed, even though precipitation rates during the same period were constant. This indicates that the increase in river flow rates may be attributable to anthropogenic alteration of the watershed rather than to a long-term impact of climate change. The 2009 positive salinity anomaly was further related to an El Niño Modoki episode. Through the study of potential short-to long-term interactions between salinity, river discharges, precipitation and El Nino-La Nina oscillations, we reached conclusions that should be of great value to environmental management and sustainable development. Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems CorporationSuggested Reviewers:James Cloern, PhD Senior scientist, United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, USA jecloern@usgs.gov Dr. James Cloern is a renowned senior research scientist working on comparative ecology and biogeochemistry of estuaries to understand how they respond as ecosystems to climatic-hydrologic variability and human disturbance Carlos Gay-García, PhD Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F., Mexico cgay@unam.mx Dr. Carlos Gay García is the top climate change specialist in Mexico and will be able to assess the local to global dimension of the presented work. However, is position in the same research center as 2 co-authors could present a potential conflict of interest 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2- Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation 1- Global climate change and local watershed management as potential drivers of salinity vari...
The 2009-2010 El Niño was accompanied by a severe drought strongly impacting Mexico as well as Central America, the Caribbean, and the southern USA. The present work aims at assessing how such a major climatic event impacted the hydrological typology of transitional waters in Terminos Lagoon, one of the largest shallow tropical lagoons fringing the Gulf of Mexico. Spatiotemporal inter-comparison of hydrological conditions was conducted by pairing a reference multiparametric dataset (14 hydrological parameters versus 34 sampling stations) averaged over the October 2008 to July 2010 period with each sampling occurrence dataset and running Principal Component Analyses (PCA), setting the reference-survey dataset as active variables and each sampling occurrence dataset as non-active (supplementary) variables. It revealed that the exceptional deficit in freshwater supply to the lagoon during the 2009-2010 El Niño drastically reduced hydrological diversity and lowered the trophic status of the lagoon. Short-term shifts in environmental status are common in transitional waters and responsible for temporary shifts in community structure but climate change projections show a significant long-term decrease in the freshwater discharge at the regional scale that will impact Terminos Lagoon as well as other coastal lagoons of Mexico and Central America. When combined with sea level rise, such a decrease will result in a long-term shift in hydrological conditions with a subsequent increase in salinity and a decrease in the diversity of environmental conditions affecting trophic status, will have a long-term impact on the biota.
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