Weather forecasting is a natural phenomenon which has some chaotic changes happening with the passage of time. It has become an essential topic of research due to some abrupt scenarios of weather. As the data of forecast is nonlinear and follows some irregular trends and patterns, there are many traditional techniques (the literature like nonlinear statistics) to work on the efficiency of models to make prediction better than previous models. However, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has so far evolved out to be as a better way to improve the accuracy and reliability. The ANN is one of the most fastest growing technique of machine learning considered as non-linear predictive models to perform classification and prediction weather forecasts maximum temperature for the whole days (365) of the year. Therefore, a multi-layered neural network is designed and trained with the existing dataset and obtained a relationship between the existing non-linear parameters of weather. Eleven weather features were used to perform classification of weather into four types. Furthermore, twenty training examples from 1997-2015 were used to predict eleven weather features. The results revealed that by increasing the number of hidden layers, the trained neural network can classify and predict the weather variables with less error.
Demand Response Management (DRM) is considered one of the crucial aspects of the smart grid as it helps to lessen the production cost of electricity and utility bills. DRM becomes a fascinating research area when numerous utility companies are involved and their announced prices reflect consumer’s behavior. This paper discusses a Stackelberg game plan between consumers and utility companies for efficient energy management. For this purpose, analytical consequences (unique solution) for the Stackelberg equilibrium are derived. Besides this, this paper presents a distributed algorithm which converges for consumers and utilities. Moreover, different power consumption activities on the basis of time series are becoming a basic need for load prediction in smart grid. Load forecasting is taken as the significant concerns in the power systems and energy management with growing technology. The better precision of load forecasting minimizes the operational costs and enhances the scheduling of the power system. The literature has discussed different techniques for demand load forecasting like neural networks, fuzzy methods, Naïve Bayes, and regression based techniques. This paper presents a novel knowledge based system for short-term load forecasting. The algorithms of Affinity Propagation and Binary Firefly Algorithm are integrated in knowledge based system. Besides, the proposed system has minimum operational time as compared to other techniques used in the paper. Moreover, the precision of the proposed model is improved by a different priority index to select similar days. The similarity in climate and date proximity are considered all together in this index. Furthermore, the whole system is distributed in sub-systems (regions) to measure the consequences of temperature. Additionally, the predicted load of the entire system is evaluated by the combination of all predicted outcomes from all regions. The paper employs the proposed knowledge based system on real time data. The proposed scheme is compared with Deep Belief Network and Fuzzy Local Linear Model Tree in terms of accuracy and operational cost. In addition, the presented system outperforms other techniques used in the paper and also decreases the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) on a yearly basis. Furthermore, the novel knowledge based system gives more efficient outcomes for demand load forecasting.
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