The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in land use and land cover (LULC) change is a key issue for conservation efforts. In the Chilean hotspot, different studies have attempted to understand variations of LULC change. Nevertheless, a broader understanding of common patterns and variability of LULC over the entire range of the hotspot is lacking. We performed a complete review of the different studies reporting LULC changes and performed a joint analysis of their results using an integrated comprehensive approach. We related the variation of LULC change to latitude, time period and vascular plant richness using generalized linear models. Overall, there were nine studies, which covered 36.5 % of the study area, and reported the loss of 19 % of native forest (782,120 ha) between 1973 and 2011. The highest net forest loss was observed in the period. This decreased in the 1990-2000 period and rose again in the 2000-2010 period. This result reveals a continuous forest loss in the last 40 years. Conversion of native forest to shrublands is the most important contributor to net native forest loss, accounting for 45 % of the loss. However, in the area of greatest species richness native forests are mainly converted to exotic tree plantations. Chilean forestry model has proved successful in expanding exotic tree plantation, but so far it has not been compatible with native forest conservation and restoration. It is imperative to design a new forestry policy to assure the conservation of one of the most unique biodiversity hotspots worldwide.Keywords Land use and land cover change Á Remote sensing Á Temperate forest Á Deforestation Á Exotic tree plantation Editor: Wolfgang Cramer.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

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SUMMARYA multitemporal analysis to determine the land cover change was conduced in the pre-Andean range of Maule region of Chile. We used satellite imagery from the year 1989 and 2003 to analyze the likely causes of native forest change. In this period, there was a reduction in native forest area of 44% in the study area, which is equivalent to an annual forest loss rate of 4.1%. The native forest area is replaced by shrublands (29%) and exotic forest plantations (27%). A great proportion of current exotic forest plantations are established on lands that were native forest in 1989 (63%). Most forest loss was associated with intermediate elevation and less distance to road network, where native forest area dominated. Native forest replacing by shrublands was associated to selective forest logging and firewood, which leads to degradation of these forests. Native forest replacing by exotic forest plantations was the result of the forestation incentive and an increase in the demand for forest products such as wood and pulp. Because of multiple impacts of the forest loss, we propose to focus the government incentives. Priority areas for incentives must be characterized by high forest loss rate and poverty, presence of threatened species and low availability of water from catchments. Moreover, we propose to prioritize the connectivity of the current network protected areas and to develop an effective forest management monitoring system using advanced technologies.Key words: Maule region, native forest, multitemporal analysis, remote sensing, land cover. RESUMENSe realizó un análisis multitemporal para determinar los cambios en la cobertura del suelo en una zona de la precordillera andina de la Región del Maule, Chile. Para ello se utilizaron imágenes satelitales de los años 1989 y 2003, y se analizaron las causas probables de la deforestación del bosque nativo presente en estos ecosistemas. El bosque nativo se redujo en un 44%, lo cual se traduce en una tasa de deforestación de 4,1% anual. La superficie de bosque nativo fue reemplazada preferentemente por coberturas de matorral (29%) y plantaciones de especies exóticas (27%). Una gran proporción de las actuales plantaciones exóticas está establecida sobre terrenos que anteriormente correspondían a bosque nativo (63%). La mayor pérdida de bosque nativo se concentra en niveles de elevación intermedia, donde se encuentra la mayor superficie de bosque nativo, asociándose también a una menor distancia de la red de caminos. El reemplazo del bosque nativo por matorrales se asocia principalmente a prácticas de floreo y extracción de leña, lo cual produce la degradación del bosque. La sustitución de bosque nativo por especies exóticas se explica por el incentivo a la forestación y por la creciente demanda de productos derivados de la madera y pulpa. Debido a los múltiples impactos que produce la deforestación se propone focalizar los incentivos estatales en áreas con altos niveles de deforestación y pobreza, presencia de especies amenazadas y menor disponibilidad de agua desde...

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RESUMENA pesar de la reconocida importancia de los incendios forestales, la investigación sobre modelación de ocurrencia de incendios es escasa en el Hemisferio Sur, y en particular en Chile. Se estudió el efecto de la heterogeneidad del paisaje en la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en Chile Central. Se ajustó un modelo que incluye variables climáticas, topográfi cas, de actividad humana y cobertura del suelo. La probabilidad de ocurrencia aumentó con una mayor temperatura mínima y estacionalidad de la precipitación, y disminuyó con una mayor distancia a las ciudades. El modelo clasifi có correctamente un 65% de los datos de validación. Las predicciones sugieren que un 38% del área de estudio tiene muy alta probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendios, la cual aumenta bajo un simulado escenario futuro. El modelo predictivo debería ser utilizado como una herramienta para orientar aspectos urgentes de protección y prevención, lo cual debe continuar siendo discutido y evaluado.Palabras clave: Clima, disturbios antrópicos, patrones de paisaje, regresión logísti-ca, sensores remotos. ABSTRACTForest fi res are recognized as a serious problem. Despite its importance, research into modelling of forest fi re occurrence is lacking for the southern hemisphere, in particular for Chile. We investigated how landscape heterogeneity affects the probability of the occurrence of forest fi res in Central Chile. We fi tted a logistic regression model which included climatic, topographic, human-related and land-cover variables. Estimated probabilities of forest fi re occurrence increased positively

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