The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.
In the most developed countries the first estimations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are available 30 days after the end of the reference quarter. In this paper, possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of GDP in B&H have been explored. The database consists of more than 100 daily, monthly and quarterly time series for the period 2006q1-2016q4. The aim of this study was to estimate and validate different factor models. Due to the length limit of the series, the factor analysis included 12 time series which had a correlation coefficient with a quarterly GDP at the absolute value greater than 0.8. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the orthogonal varimax rotation of the initial solution were applied. Three principal components are extracted from the set of the series, thus together accounting for 73.34% of the total variability of the given set of series. The final choice of the model for forecasting quarterly B&H GDP was selected based on a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models for the in-sample period and for the out-of-sample period. The unbiasedness and efficiency of individual forecasts were tested using the Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, while a comparison of the accuracy of forecast of two models was tested by the Diebold-Mariano test. We have examined the justification of a combination of two forecasts using the Granger-Ramanathan regression. A factor model involving three factors has shown to be the most efficient factor model for forecasting quarterly B&H GDP.
This paper analyses the inefficiency of social services targeting in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H). Using official statistics microdata of the Household Budget Survey 2015, three models of social minimum in FB&H were constructed: extreme and general poverty, and the model with multidimensional poverty aspects. The analysis of features of poor household categories showed that the most vulnerable residents of FB&H are not beneficiaries of permanent financial assistance. The reason for such an inefficient targeting was recognized in the Federal Law on Principles of Social Care, Care for the War-Disabled Civilians and Care for Families with Children that stipulates that only persons and families that (cumulatively): are incapable for work, have insufficient income, and there are no family members who are legally obligated to support them. The results indicated a high inconsistency in the legal criteria for qualification, and also in the amounts of permanent social assistance among cantons. The Proxy Means Test (PMT) Model is offered as one of the possible solutions for the improvement of social services targeting in FB&H. Given the importance of efficiency of targeting in social services, the research results could be useful, for both, vulnerable segments of the society and federal and cantonal ministries of labour and social affairs, in the process of targeting the households qualified for social support programmes.
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