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This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.

Trade openness can reduce inflation volatility through limiting recourse to seigniorage during periods of temporary fiscal deficits, and by shifting consumption and production towards goods for which the terms of trade are relatively stable. This paper provides evidence for a negative effect of openness on inflation volatility using a dynamic panel model that controls for the endogeneity of openness and the effects of both average inflation and the exchange rate regime. The relationship is found to be strongest amongst developing and emerging market economies. We show that openness reduces the volatility of reserve money growth and terms of trade growth and that these effects contribute to the relationship between openness and inflation volatility.

We present crosscountry empirical evidence on the role of natural resources in explaining long-run differences in private investment as a share of GDP in a sample of 72 developing countries. Our empirical results suggest important differences between oil and non-oil resources. While revenue from oil exports tends to increase private (and public) investment, there is also a robust negative effect from a measure of export concentration. After controlling for these two aspects of export structure, there is little additional information in other measures of resource abundance, or in other suggested investment determinants, such as measures of the quality of institutions, political instability or macroeconomic volatility.

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This article provides a first systematic mapping of politically influential shrines across Pakistani Punjab by identifying shrine-related families that have directly participated in elections since 1937. One of the earliest entrants in the politics of pre-partition Punjab, shrine elites (pīrs) have shown remarkable persistence in electoral politics post independence. We find striking long-run continuities in the initial configuration of religion, land, and politics fostered during colonial rule and embodied in political shrines. Exploring possible mechanisms of this persistence, we emphasize the role of shifting political alliances, repeated military interventions, marital ties among shrine elites, and preservation of political brokerage. Defined by their privileged ‘origins and associations’ and organized as a group with a strong sense of solidarity around protecting common interests, the pīrs are a key component of Punjab's power elite, the study of which is central to understanding the genesis and persistence of elites and institutions.

Private industrial development in Pakistan has a mixed track record. This paper presents a political economy overview of industrial development in Pakistan. Starting with an analysis of initial conditions, such as low levels of urbanization and out-migration of bourgeoisie, the paper looks at the ways in which policies were used to create advantages for elites and special interests. The paper also investigates the role of foreign aid in distorting industrial structure.JEL Classification: F14, F19.

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