1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 9Abstract 10 Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of 11 upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of 12 fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has 13 recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase 14 in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, 15 recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The senegalo-mauritanian 16 upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N-20°N) 17 and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal 18 cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled 19 Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are 20 characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of 21 the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the 22 intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily 23 because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a 24 more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of 25 such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very 26 uncertain. 27 28 Atlantic 30 3 50pumping are difficult to compare. The former effect is strongly localized nearshore while the latter 51 is more broadly distributed. Their relative importance thus depends on the choice of an across-shore 52 length scale for how far offshore Ekman pumping is being considered that is often largely arbitrary 53 4 and studies do not agree yet (Nelson 1976; Halpern 2002; Pickett 2003; Bravo et al. 2016; Torres 54 2003; Capet et al. 2004). 55 Among the four EBUSs mentioned above, we concentrate here on the southern part of the 56 so-called Canary Upwelling System (CUS). This upwelling extends from the coast of West Africa 57 at ~10°N to that of the Iberian peninsula around 45°N (Aristegui et al. 2005). A comparison of the 58 four major EBUSs shows that the northwest African coast is the most spatially and seasonally 59 variable one in terms of primary production (Carr and Kearns 2003). This variability is still 60 insufficiently documented and understood despite a number of recent studies including (Mason et 61 al. 2011; Ndoye et al. 2014; Benazzouz et al. 2014; Faye et al. 2015). Based on arguments of 62 seasonality, Arístegui et al. (2009) proposed that this system could be divided into 5 sub-regions. In 63 the north, the Galician coast (42°N-45°N) and the Portuguese coast (37°N-42°N) are both 64 characterized by a summer-time upwelling when the ...
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