Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time.

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E‐OBS(European Observations) is a gridded climate data set which contains maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation on a daily time step. The data can be as fine as 0.25° in resolution and extends over the entire European continent and parts of Africa and Asia. However, for studying regional or local climatic effects, a finer resolution would be more appropriate. A continental data set with resolution would allow research that is large in scale and still locally relevant. Until now, a climate data set with high spatial and temporal resolution has not existed for Europe. To fulfil this need, we produced a downscaled version of E‐OBS, applying the delta method, which uses WorldClim climate surfaces to obtain a 0.008true3‾° (about 1 × 1 km) resolution climate data set on a daily time step covering the European Union. The new downscaled data set includes minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for the years 1951–2012. It is analysed against weather station data from six countries: Norway, Germany, France, Italy, Austria, and Spain. Our analysis of the downscaled data set shows a reduction in the mean bias error of 3 °C for mean daily minimum temperature and of 4 °C for mean daily maximum temperature. Daily precipitation improved by 0.15 mm on average for all weather stations in the validation. The entire data set is freely and publically available at ftp://palantir.boku.ac.at/Public/ClimateData.

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO 2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year −1 (7 kg C ha) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO 2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO 2 manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.

Net primary production (NPP) is an important ecological metric for studying forest ecosystems and their carbon sequestration, for assessing the potential supply of food or timber and quantifying the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. The global MODIS NPP dataset using the MOD17 algorithm provides valuable information for monitoring NPP at 1-km resolution. Since coarse-resolution global climate data are used, the global dataset may contain uncertainties for Europe. We used a 1-km daily gridded European climate data set with the MOD17 algorithm to create the regional NPP dataset MODIS EURO. For evaluation of this new dataset, we compare MODIS EURO with terrestrial driven NPP from analyzing and harmonizing forest inventory data (NFI) from 196,434 plots in 12 European countries as well as the global MODIS NPP dataset for the years 2000 to 2012. Comparing these three NPP datasets, we found that the global MODIS NPP dataset differs from NFI NPP by 26%, while MODIS EURO only differs by 7%. MODIS EURO also agrees with NFI NPP across scales (from continental, regional to country) and gradients (elevation, location, tree age, dominant species, etc.). The agreement is particularly good for elevation, dominant species or tree height. This suggests that using improved climate data allows the MOD17 algorithm to provide realistic NPP estimates for Europe. Local discrepancies between MODIS EURO and NFI NPP can be related to differences in stand density due to forest management and the national carbon estimation methods. With this study, we provide a consistent, temporally continuous and spatially explicit productivity dataset for the years 2000 to 2012 on a 1-km resolution, which can be used to assess climate change impacts on ecosystems or the potential biomass supply of the European forests for an increasing bio-based economy. MODIS EURO data are made freely available at ftp://palantir.boku.ac.at/Public/MODIS_EURO.