SignificanceFighting wildfires in the United States costs billions of dollars annually. Public dialog and ongoing research have focused on increasing wildfire risk because of climate warming, overlooking the direct role that people play in igniting wildfires and increasing fire activity. Our analysis of two decades of government agency wildfire records highlights the fundamental role of human ignitions. Human-started wildfires accounted for 84% of all wildfires, tripled the length of the fire season, dominated an area seven times greater than that affected by lightning fires, and were responsible for nearly half of all area burned. National and regional policy efforts to mitigate wildfire-related hazards would benefit from focusing on reducing the human expansion of the fire niche.

Sagebrush is one of the most imperiled ecosystems in western North America, having lost about half of its original 62 million hectare extent. Annual grass invasions are known to be increasing wildfire occurrence and burned area, but the lasting effects (greater than five years post‐fire) that the resulting reburns have on these plant communities are unclear. We created a fire history atlas from 31 yr (1984–2014) of Landsat‐derived fire data to sample along a fire frequency gradient (zero to three fires) in an area of northern Nevada that has experienced frequent fire in this time period. Thirty‐two percent of our study area (13,000 km2) burned in large fires (over 404 ha) at least once, 7% burned twice, and 2% burned three or more times. We collected plant abundance data at 28 plots (N = 7 per fire frequency), with an average time since fire of 17 yr. We examined fire's effect on plant diversity using species accumulation curves, alpha diversity (Shannon's dominance, Pielou's evenness, and number of species), and beta diversity (Whittaker, Simpson, and Z indexes). For composition, we used non‐metric multidimensional scaling. We then used PERMANOVA models to examine how disturbance history, temperature, precipitation, and aridity around the time of the fire affected subsequent community composition and diversity. One fire fundamentally changed community composition and reduced species richness, and each subsequent fire reduced richness further. Alpha diversity decreased after one fire. Beta diversity declined after the third fire. Cover of exotics was 10% higher in all burned plots, and native cover was 20% lower than in unburned plots, regardless of frequency. PERMANOVA models showed fire frequency and antecedent precipitation as the strongest predictors of beta diversity, while time since fire and vapor pressure deficit for the year of the fire were the strongest predictors of community composition. Given that a single fire has such a marked effect on species composition, and repeated fires reduce richness and beta diversity, we suggest that in lower elevation big sagebrush systems fire should be minimized as much as possible, perhaps even prescribed fire. Restoration efforts should be focused on timing with wet years on cooler, wetter sites.

Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when wildfires occur remains difficult. To predict wildfire extremes across the contiguous United States, we integrate a 30‐yr wildfire record with meteorological and housing data in spatiotemporal Bayesian statistical models with spatially varying nonlinear effects. We compared different distributions for the number and sizes of large fires to generate a posterior predictive distribution based on finite sample maxima for extreme events (the largest fires over bounded spatiotemporal domains). A zero‐inflated negative binomial model for fire counts and a lognormal model for burned areas provided the best performance. This model attains 99% interval coverage for the number of fires and 93% coverage for fire sizes over a six year withheld data set. Dryness and air temperature strongly predict extreme wildfire probabilities. Housing density has a hump‐shaped relationship with fire occurrence, with more fires occurring at intermediate housing densities. Statistically, these drivers affect the chance of an extreme wildfire in two ways: by altering fire size distributions, and by altering fire frequency, which influences sampling from the tails of fire size distributions. We conclude that recent extremes should not be surprising, and that the contiguous United States may be on the verge of even larger wildfire extremes.

Aim Over the past several decades, wildfires have become larger, more frequent, and/or more severe in many areas. Simultaneously, anthropogenic ignitions are steadily growing. We have little understanding of how increasing anthropogenic ignitions are changing modern fire regimes. Location Conterminous United States. Time period 1984–2016. Major taxa studied Vegetation. Methods We aggregated fire radiative power (FRP)‐based fire intensity, event size, burned area, frequency, season length, and ignition type data from > 1.8 million government records and remote sensing data at a 50‐km resolution. We evaluated the relationship between fire physical characteristics and ignition type to determine if and how modern U.S.A. fire regimes are changing sensu stricto given increased anthropogenic ignitions, and how those patterns vary over space and time. Results At a national scale, wildfires occur over longer fire seasons (17% increase) and have become larger (78%) and more frequent (12%), but not necessarily more intense. Further, human ignitions have increased 9% proportionally. The proportion of human ignitions has a negative relationship with fire size and FRP and a positive relationship with fire frequency and season length. Areas dominated by lightning ignitions experience fires that are 2.4 times more intense and 9.2 times larger. Areas dominated by human ignitions experience fires that are twice as frequent and have a fire season that is 2.4 times longer. The effect of human ignitions on fire characteristics varies regionally. Ecoregions in the eastern U.S.A. and in some parts of the coastal western U.S.A. have no areas dominated by lightning ignitions. For the remaining ecoregions, more intense and larger fires are associated with lightning ignitions, and longer season lengths are associated with human ignitions. Main conclusions Increasing anthropogenic ignitions – in tandem with climate and land cover change – are contributing to a ‘new normal’ of fire activity across continental scales.