The revolutions of the Arab Spring, in contrast to the liberal third wave of the 1970s to 1990s, rest on a more popular and traditionalist base. Critics often depict these currents as insular and even xenophobic in outlook. This article engages the literature on democratisation, framing, and social movement globalisation, and challenges that assumption. It draws on in-depth interviews conducted with Islamists and other activists in Cairo during April and May 2012. It argues that the pressures of globalisation and the opportunities of democratic transition are forcing traditionalists on to more cosmopolitan terrain. These cosmopolitan traditionalist activists draw on inspiration from other parts of the world and express solidarity with revolutionary movements elsewhere. Unlike liberal cosmopolitans, however, they ground their mode of tolerance and cooperation on substantive traditional values. While the pressures of globalisation may limit the ability of post-revolutionary regimes to deliver on social aspirations, this shift of ideological framing may pave the way for new traditionalist networks that cut across borders. As global political opportunity structures emerge and frustrations build up within nation-states, this cosmopolitan traditionalist bloc is likely to have the numbers and influence to reshape world order.
Has the era of revolution passed? Many scholars think globalization and democratization make a recurrence of the great social revolutions unlikely, now that global webs of economic interest bind states together and democratization absorbs popular discontent. I argue against these views here. The present climate is the calm before the storm. Precisely those factors that make national revolutions unlikely (economic, political, and cultural globalization) may lead to a global revolutionary crisis in coming decades. Despite the lack of a global state to capture, transnational political institutions are creating a global political arena for future upsurges of revolt. They lock in policies favorable to global capital, while remaining unresponsive and hence brittle. The loss of democratic legitimacy within nation-states, combined with rising inequality, make the world system quite vulnerable to crisis in the long run. A future profound economic crisis, if it overlaps with the cultural fault lines of our time, may recreate globally many of the dynamics that led to earlier revolutionary ruptures within nation-states.
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