BackgroundOrphan drugs are a growing issue of importance to European healthcare policy makers. The success of orphan drug legislation in Europe has resulted in an increasing number of licensed medicines for rare diseases, and many more yet unlicensed products have received orphan drug designation. Increasingly the concerns amongst policy makers relate to issues of patient access and affordability, yet few studies have sought to estimate the future budget impact of orphan drugs. The aim of this study was to predict the total cost of orphan medicines in Europe between 2010 and 2020 as a percentage of total European pharmaceutical expenditure.MethodsA disease-based epidemiological model was created based upon trends in the designation and approval of new orphan medicines, prevalence estimates for orphan diseases, and historical price and sales data for orphan drugs in Europe (defined as Eurozone + UK). The analysis incorporated two stages:1) Predicting the number of diseases for which new orphan drugs will be approved over the next decade, based on an analysis of trends from the EU registry of orphan medicines;2) Estimating the average ex-factory drug cost across an orphan disease life cycle, from the year in which the first orphan medicine is launched to the point where the first medicine loses marketing exclusivity.The two sets of information were combined to quantify the annual cost of orphan drugs from 2010 through 2020.ResultsThe results from the model predicted a steady increase in the cumulative number of diseases for which an orphan drug is approved, averaging just over 5 new diseases per year over the next 10 years. The annual per patient cost of existing orphan drugs was seen to vary between €1,251 and €407,631, with the median cost being €32,242 per year. The share of the total pharmaceutical market represented by orphan drugs is predicted to increase from 3.3% in 2010 to a peak of 4.6% in 2016 after which it is expected to level off through 2020, as growth falls into line with that in the wider pharmaceutical market. In sensitivity analysis peak-year orphan drug budget impact ranged between 3% - 6.6%.ConclusionsAlthough European orphan drug legislation has led to an increase in the number of approved orphan drugs, the growth in cost, as a proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure, is likely to plateau over the next decade as orphan growth rates converge on those in the broader pharmaceutical market. Given the assumptions and simplifications inherent in such a projection, there is uncertainty around the base case forecast and further research is needed to monitor how trends develop. However, fears that growth in orphan drug expenditure will lead to unsustainable cost escalation do not appear to be justified. Furthermore, based on the results of this budget impact forecast, the European orphan drug legislation is not leading to a disproportionate impact on pharmaceutical expenditure.
The multicriteria decision analysis approach piloted works and could be developed for use by payers and health technology assessment bodies.
Rare diseases are an important public health issue with high unmet need. The introduction of the EU Regulation on orphan medicinal products (OMP) has been successful in stimulating investment in the research and development of OMPs. Despite this advancement, patients do not have universal access to these new medicines. There are many factors that affect OMP uptake, but one of the most important is the difficulty of making pricing and reimbursement (P&R) decisions in rare diseases. Until now, there has been little consensus on the most appropriate assessment criteria, perspective or appraisal process. This paper proposes nine principles to help improve the consistency of OMP P&R assessment in Europe and ensure that value assessment, pricing and funding processes reflect the specificities of rare diseases and contribute to both the sustainability of healthcare systems and the sustainability of innovation in this field. These recommendations are the output of the European Working Group for Value Assessment and Funding Processes in Rare Diseases (ORPH-VAL), a collaboration between rare disease experts, patient representatives, academics, health technology assessment (HTA) practitioners, politicians and industry representatives. ORPH-VAL reached its recommendations through careful consideration of existing OMP P&R literature and through a wide consultation with expert stakeholders, including payers, regulators and patients. The principles cover four areas: OMP decision criteria, OMP decision process, OMP sustainable funding systems and European co-ordination. This paper also presents a guide to the core elements of value relevant to OMPs that should be consistently considered in all OMP appraisals. The principles outlined in this paper may be helpful in drawing together an emerging consensus on this topic and identifying areas where consistency in payer approach could be achievable and beneficial. All stakeholders have an obligation to work together to ensure that the promise of OMP’s is realised.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13023-017-0601-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
BackgroundThe growth in expenditure on orphan medicinal products (OMP) across Europe has been identified as a concern. Estimates of future expenditure in Europe have suggested that OMPs could account for a significant proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure in some countries, but few of these forecasts have been well validated. This analysis aims to establish a robust forecast of the future budget impact of OMPs on the healthcare systems in Sweden and France.MethodsA dynamic forecasting model was created to estimate the budget impact of OMPs in Sweden and France between 2013 and 2020. The model used historical data on OMP designation and approval rates to predict the number of new OMPs coming to the market. Average OMP sales were estimated for each year post-launch by regression analysis of historical sales data. Total forecast sales were compared with expected sales of all pharmaceuticals in each country to quantify the relative budget impact.ResultsThe model predicts that by 2020, 152 OMPs will have marketing authorization in Europe. The base case OMP budget impacts are forecast to grow from 2.7% in Sweden and 3.2% in France of total drug expenditure in 2013 to 4.1% in Sweden and 4.9% in France by 2020. The principal driver of expenditure growth is the number of new OMPs obtaining OMP designation. This is tempered by the slowing success rate for new approvals and the loss of intellectual property protection on existing orphan medicines. Given the forward-looking nature of the analysis, uncertainty exists around model parameters and sensitivity analysis found peak year budget impact varying between 2% and 11%.ConclusionThe budget impact of OMPs in Sweden and France is likely to remain sustainable over time and a relatively small proportion of total pharmaceutical expenditure. This forecast could be affected by changes in the success rate for OMP approvals, average cost of OMPs, and the type of companies developing OMPs.
The European Orphan Medicinal Products (OMP) Regulation has successfully encouraged research to develop treatments for rare diseases resulting in the authorisation of new OMPs in Europe. While decisions on OMP designation and marketing authorisation are made at the European Union level, reimbursement decisions are made at the national level. OMP value and affordability are high priority issues for policymakers and decisions regarding their pricing and funding are highly complex. There is currently no European consensus on how OMP value should be assessed and inequalities of access to OMPs have previously been observed. Against this background, policy makers in many countries are considering reforms to improve access to OMPs. This paper proposes ten principles to be considered when undertaking such reforms, from the perspective of an OMP manufacturer. We recommend the continued prioritisation of rare diseases by policymakers, an increased alignment between payer and regulatory frameworks, pricing centred on OMP value, and mechanisms to ensure long-term financial sustainability allowing a continuous and virtuous development of OMPs. Our recommendations support the development of more consistent frameworks and encourage collaboration between all stakeholders, including research-based industry, payers, clinicians, and patients.
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