We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.

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Relying on social preference theory and on poverty trap literature, this article\ud suggests a richer and more nuanced role of the third sector as an institution\ud complementary to the state and to the market in an economy’s development\ud process. Social preferences are considered as the micro—fundaments of the third\ud sector in that this promotes activities, laws, and organizational forms coherent with\ud those preferences. The third sector contributes to overcoming poverty traps not\ud only by spreading behavior based on altruism and solidarity but also by promoting\ud investments in welfare services and human capital and by favoring the access of all\ud the agents to the various markets.\ud Keyword

We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.

The aims of this article are to propose an overall index of social exclusion and to analyze its relationship with economic growth in European countries. We approach social exclusion as a multidimensional phenomenon by a three-mode principal components analysis (Tucker3 model). This method is applied to estimate an indicator of social exclusion for 28 European countries between 1995 and 2010. The empirical evidence shows that in the short run: (1) Granger causality runs one way from social exclusion to economic growth and not the other way; (2) countries with a higher level of social exclusion have higher growth rates of real GDP per capita; and (3) social exclusion has a larger effect than income inequality on economic growth. The policy implication of our analysis is that social inclusion is not a source of economic growth in the short term