The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C-sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.
This paper presents findings from an analytical scheme that offers a promising alternative to traditional procedures of modeling acreage response. The scheme addresses the two-step decision process in which program and nonprogram planting decisions are modeled separately, conditional on the decision to participate. This provides a more realistic and intuitive portrayal of producers' decision making process. The model is applied at the regional level to assess the impact of farm programs on acreage response for corn in the Cornbelt and Lake States, and for wheat in the Northern Plains. The impacts of policy variable changes on participation and planted acreage are also analyzed.
Tung has been a preferred natural drying oil because of the high gloss finish, durability and water resistance qualities which it imparts to paint, varnish and lacquer products. However, increased competition from chemical synthetics, combined with lower prices for other natural oils since the early 1950's, has brought a decline of domestic tung oil consumption from 72.4 million pounds in 1950-51 to around 32 million pounds in 1968–69.The mandatory support program, initiated in 1948, obligates the Commodity Credit Corporation to support tung oil prices to growers at a minimum 65 percent of parity or at 24.3 cents per pound in 1968. Large accumulations of CCC stocks, close to 63 million pounds in 1966, triggered a change in CCC inventory policy.
Spatial models representing the international grain economy are developed to estimate the annual contribution of the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers to Midwest grain producer revenues and to evaluate alternate grain routing necessitated by a catastrophic event at Lock and Dam 27 near St. Louis. Several scenarios are constructed to consider grain load capacity constraints in combination with alternative rail rate increases. The analysis suggests the annual value of the upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers for grain transport ranges from $229 million to $806 million.
An econometric model of planted wheat acreage was estimated for five distinct production regions in the United States. This structural investigation represents an update of previous published work with specific attention given to policy program variables, weather, production cost, risk, market price influences, and program participation. Estimated results indicated regional divergence in responsiveness to government program variables. The most significant divergence occurred in the Cornbelt and Southeast—soft red winter wheat areas. Results indicate that management of the wheat program from the USDA level will contain countervailing production incentives unless these regional characteristics are taken into consideration in policy directives.
The cornerstone of the 1977 and 1981 Farm Bills for crops is a buffer stock-supply management program involving the farmer-owned reserve and acreage adjustment instruments. Among the several reasons normally cited for adopting this type program is price and income stability. However, recent swings in commodity prices, net farm income and government program costs have stimulated widespread interest in farm program redesign and modification in 1985.
Risk response was included at the aggregate level in positive supply models for corn and soybeans. The welfare cost of risk was measured, allowing for interactions between product demand and supply functions as well as in the risk specification. Impacts of risk response are simulated within a simultaneous equation modeling system. Findings indicate that consumers gain but producers lose from reduction in risk. The social cost of risk as a percentage of the value of the crop was estimated for corn and soybeans at 0.36 percent and 0.35 percent, respectively.
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