SummaryThis paper presents an integrated method for identifying and inserting valuable flexibility into major projects. It builds upon recent work that (1) documents how errors in estimates can bias the selection of design concepts, (2) shows how concept flexibility can improve the project performance, and (3) usefully illustrates the probability distribution of outcomes. It involves: (1) developing and evaluating a base case design, (2) exploring the outcomes this design might generate, (3) identifying opportunities for flexible design, and (4) evaluating and selecting the most valuable flexibility to incorporate into the design. It embodies a paradigmatic change in the way designers deal with uncertainty: instead of basing a design on fixed assumptions and then testing its sensitivity to risks, the approach recognizes risks in the design process and thereby develops valuable flexibility that increases the expected value of projects. A case study of an oil platform development in the Gulf of Mexico demonstrates the method.
The commercial sector in Nigeria has been greatly hampered due to the poor availability of reliable electricity. In a 2014 World Bank report, nearly half of the firms doing business in Nigeria identified electricity as a major constraint, with over a quarter of them listing electricity as their biggest obstacle. The business losses due to electrical outages have been significant, with losses averaging about 16% of annual sales. The lack of access to reliable electricity is one of the biggest challenges to economic growth in Nigeria. This paper proposes a means of powering the commercial sector in Nigeria using urban swarm electrification. It outlines a conceptual framework for using a distributed network made up of grid-connected home solar PV systems as a viable option for providing the commercial sector with more reliable access to electricity. It further addresses the policy implications for the commercial sector with the enablement of more electrification options, implications that include strong economic impact, as well as the expansion and creation of new industries.
When oil wells can no longer flow naturally at the desired rate, artificial-lift methods are often employed. Most mechanical installations of artificial-lift equipment require a complete workover of the well, involving pulling the well apart and rerunning the completion with additional artificial-lift components. These methods can prove prohibitively expensive and/or risky, and they may not pass the economic hurdle for implementation. A tubing punch and packoff gas lift system, also known as an "econo-gas lift" or retrofit gas lift system, may provide a less risky and more economically viable means of bringing dead wells back on production or optimizing flowing wells. To the best of our knowledge, the use of retrofit gas lift systems has been untested in a tension-leg-platform (TLP) environment and poses a new set of challenges as compared to its use onshore or in shallow-water locations. A case of the gas lift retrofit of an oil well on a TLP in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed method. This paper shows how a retrofit gas lift system was used for capturing remaining reserves from a loaded TLP well. The specific case relates to the Shell Ursa A9 well, and this paper presents the new technologies employed and the successes and challenges associated with bringing the well back on production.
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