Abstract:In this empirical work, cognisance has been given to providing a review of literature on the seasonal BoxJenkins modelling, particularly with reference to a univariate model. Seasonal pattern of Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) has been produced for Sierra Leone and with EVIEWS making use of best model selection of (6,0)(0,0). Data were seasonally adjusted with iteration and sufficient diagnostic test outcomes showing that forecast using Static method yielded best outcome, with Year-on-Year inflation over the three monthly period forecasted outcomes. The correlogram of the resultant series revealed very stable outcome of the results, while MAPE for the forecast evaluation revealing marginal error for the outcome, indicating that the model is quite adequate with the chosen methodology.
The study has provided empirical investigation of both ARIMA and ARIMAX methodology as a way of providing forecast of Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) for Sierra Leone based on data collected from the Sierra Leone Statistical Office and the Bank of Sierra Leone. In this, the main research question of addressing outcomes from in and out-of-sample forecast were provided using the Static technique and this shows that both methodologies were proved to have tracked past and future occurrences of HCPI with minimal margin of error as indicated in the MAPE results. In a similar note, the key objective of identifying whether the ARIMAX methodology or the ARIMA methodology is a better predictor of forecasting future trends in HCPI. However, on the whole, both ARIMA and ARIMAX seem to have provided very good outcome in predicting future events of HCPI, particularly when Static technique is used as the option for forecasting outcomes, with the ARIMAX marginally coming out as the preferred choice on the basis of its evaluation outcomes.
This paper assesses the impact of Ebola and Covid-19 outbreaks on macroeconomic stability in Sierra Leone. The paper adopts a mix of both qualitative and quantitative approach of analysis using secondary information and data. Specifically, it looks at projections of key economic indicators for Sierra Leone before the start of the outbreaks and after the outbreaks (counterfactual analysis) and the policies employed to cushion the economy against the adverse effects of the outbreaks. The study concludes that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 on macroeconomic outcomes in the country was less severe than that of the impact of the Ebola outbreak of 2014-2015. This was partly due to the pertinent lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak, which helped policy makers to take quick and prudent actions that greatly attenuated the negative impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the economy in 2020. Both policy practitioners and academicians will find this paper very useful in trying to understand macroeconomic dynamics in Sierra Leone during the last decade.
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