Closing schools to control COVID-19 transmission has been globally debated, with concerns about children’s education and well-being, and also because of the varied effectiveness of the intervention in studies across the world. This paper aims to determine the effect of school closure policy on the incidence of COVID-19 in Pakistan. A Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis compared changes in COVID-19 incidence across cities that completely (Islamabad) and partially (Peshawar) closed schools during the second wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Effects of closing (November 2020) and reopening schools (February 2021) were assessed in Islamabad and Peshawar 10 and 20 days after policy implementation. In Islamabad, there was a greater decline in cases than in Peshawar when schools closed. After 10-days, the average reduction of daily COVID-19 incidence in Islamabad was lower by 89 cases (95% CI: -196, 18), due to complete school closure, with a relative reduction of 125 cases (95% CI: -191, -59) compared to Peshawar. Similarly, the relative increase in Islamabad after schools re-opened was 107 cases (95% CI: 46, 167) compared to Peshawar. After 20-days, the average daily COVID-19 incidence in both cities declined after school were closed (Islamabad: -81 [95% CI: -150, -13] versus Peshawar: -80 [95% CI: -148, -12]). COVID-19 incidence appeared to decline after schools reopened as well (Islamabad: -116 [95% CI: -230, -3] versus Peshawar: -30 [95% CI: -124, 63]). However, Peshawar’s decline is not statistically significant. These results control for changes in testing as well as a daily time trend. The magnitude and speed of reduction in cases with a complete school closure, and a similar but reverse trend of increasing cases upon reopening, suggests that closing schools reduces COVID-19 transmission in communities. However, there are learning-loss and well-being costs for children and their parents.

Background Ghana has experienced recent polio outbreaks. Behavioral insights can be used to understand behavior and create demand for the polio vaccine. Methods This cross-sectional study is based on an interactive mobile phone survey that explored factors influencing the uptake of the polio vaccine among Ghanaian mothers with children younger than five years old. The survey also explores the mothers’ intention to vaccinate their children in the future as well as an experiment with short polio vaccine voice message nudges to identify the most effective message frames in encouraging vaccination. The study sample was drawn from volunteers from a mobile service platform. Linear probability model regressions with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates were used to analyze the data. Results In total, data from 708 caregivers was assessed. Out of the sample, 35% (n = 250) had not vaccinated their children against polio, around 8% (n = 53) of respondents stated they did not plan to do so, while 28% expressed intent to do so during the next polio vaccination campaign. Higher vaccination of children against polio, i.e. better uptake of the polio vaccine, appeared to be associated with children’s caregivers knowing that polio causes paralysis (with a coefficient of 0.13 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.24), i.e. 13% more likely than not to have their child vaccinated). Higher vaccine uptake also appeared to be associated with the perception that the polio vaccine is safe (with a coefficient of 0.11 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.22), i.e. 11% more likely than not to have their child vaccinated). Another factor in increasing vaccine uptake is whether caregivers receive support from healthcare workers with a coefficient of 0.11 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.20), i.e. 11% more likely than not to have their child vaccinated. Crucially, difficulty accessing the polio vaccine appeared to be associate with a negative change in vaccine uptake (with a coefficient of -0.16 (95% CI: -0.23, -0.08), i.e. 16% less likely to have their child vaccinated). Satisfaction with the information provided by vaccinators was also associated with better vaccine uptake (with a coefficient of 0.12 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.20) i.e. 12% more likely than not to have their child vaccinated); and having seen or heard something negative about the polio vaccine with a coefficient of 0.10 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.17), i.e. 10% more likely than not to have their child vaccinated. The social norms message frame was statistically significant with a coefficient of 0.06 (95% CI: -0.004, 012). Conclusion The findings from this study suggest that most women with children under the age of 5 appear to have vaccinated their children against polio. Many more caregivers express an intention to vaccinate their children, never having done so before. The behavior and the intention to vaccinate are both driven by a number of factors that must be addressed to create demand for the polio vaccine. Targeted message frames appeared to be statistically significant drivers of vaccine uptake. However, more research is required to understand how they impact vaccine behavior and future intention for vaccination.

Schools were closed all over Pakistan on November 26, 2020 to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and reopened between January 18 and February 1, 2021. However, these closures were associated with significant economic and social costs, prompting a review of effectiveness of school closures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections in a developing country like Pakistan. A single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was used to measure the impact of school closures, as well as reopening schools, on daily new COVID-19 cases in 6 major cities across Pakistan: Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, Peshawar, and Muzaffarabad. However, any benefits were contingent on continued closure of schools, as cases bounced back once schools reopened. School closures are associated with a clear and statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 cases by 0.07 to 0.63 cases per 100,000 population, while reopening schools is associated with a statistically significant increase. Lahore is an exception to the effect of school closures, but it too saw an increase in COVID-19 cases after schools reopened in early 2021. We show that closing schools was a viable policy option, especially before vaccines became available. However, its social and economic costs must also be considered.

Schools were closed all over Pakistan on November 26, 2020 to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and reopened between January 18 and February 1, 2021. However, these closures were associated with significant economic and social costs, prompting a review of effectiveness of school closures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections in a developing country like Pakistan. A single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was used to measure the impact of school closures, as well as reopening schools on daily new COVID-19 cases in 6 major cities across Pakistan: Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, Peshawar, and Muzaffarabad. We found that closing schools reduced COVID-19 incidence in the community by approximately a third of all cases nationwide. However, any benefits were contingent on continued closure of schools, as cases bounced back once schools reopened. School closures are associated with a clear and statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 cases by 0.07 to 0.63 cases per 100,000 population, while reopening schools is associated with a statistically significant increase. Lahore is an exception to the effect of school closures, but it too saw an increase in COVID-19 cases after schools reopened in early 2021. We show that closing schools was a viable policy option, especially before vaccines became available. However, its social and economic costs must also be considered.