A B S T R A C TThe influence of climate change on the water resources of the middle Cheliff basin in Algeria was assessed with particular emphasis on the major issues related to water reserves. The Cheliff basin, which is one of the largest basins in the north of Algeria, is affected by water scarcity due to the expansion of industrial and agricultural activities with the population growth, on the one hand, and to a reduction in water resources caused by extreme droughts, on the other hand. The results of the current assessment showed a significant decrease in annual precipitation, ranging from 14 to 32%, and an increase in average temperature by 0.9˚C over the past 20 years. A mathematical model predicted a flow deficit ranging from 20 to 25% by the year 2050. Hydroclimatic characterization indicated that rainfall deficits and the increase in temperature will have an immediate and significant negative impact on the surface water flow and groundwater recharge. It was recommended that water resources managers need to develop effective strategies for the rational use of water since this will affect social and economic development.
Abstract:In aim to well understand of the association between climate change, variability and their impact on water resources availability, an analysis was conducted of the trends in rainfall and stream flows across the Cheliff basin in Algeria. Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope was employed to estimate the extent of tendencies, whose statistical significance was measured by the Mann-Kendall (MK) and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. Results showed that the annual rainfall had a statistically significant downward trend in the whole basin. The largest downward trend of -4.58 mm y −1 was recorded in the south eastern region of the case study area. Significant decline trends in annual stream flows were detected at up to -1.18 m 3 s −1 y −1 . It was concluded that climate change appears to have an adverse effects on the hydrological cycle involving all water resources in the case study area. The reduced precipitation clearly resulted in a downward trend in water inflow as shown by recorded decrease from 1025 to 815 Mm 3 between 1968-2001 and 2009. The costs of a water shortage can be an impaired the environmental balance which will affect the various human activities especially domestic water supplies and agricultural economy. The results of the current study will help to enhance the management of natural resources in the Cheliff basin.
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