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Background We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for COVID-19 presenting for urgent care. Methods We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics (RICs) or the emergency department (ED). Data was extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, March 7-May 2) and prospective (n = 2205, May 3-14) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (ICU or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio (E/O): 1.01, AUC: 0.76); for critical illness (E/O 1.03, AUC: 0.79); and for death (E/O: 1.63, AUC=0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top five were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate. Conclusions CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.

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The brain age index (BAI) measures the difference between an individual's apparent "brain age" (BA; estimated by comparing EEG features during sleep from an individual with age norms), and their chronological age (CA); that is BAI = BA-CA. Here, we evaluate whether BAI predicts life expectancy. Brain age was quantified using a previously published machine learning algorithm for a cohort of participants ≥40 years old who underwent an overnight sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) as part of the Sleep Heart Health Study (n = 4877). Excess brain age (BAI >0) was associated with reduced life expectancy (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.12, [1.03, 1.21], p = 0.002). Life expectancy decreased by −0.81 [−1.44, −0.24] years per standard-deviation increase in BAI. Our findings show that BAI, a sleep EEG-based biomarker of the deviation of sleep microstructure from patterns normal for age, is an independent predictor of life expectancy.