Temperatures in the Arctic have increased by an astounding 1 °C in response to anthropogenic forcing over the past 20 years and are expected to rise further in the coming decades. The Pliocene (2.6-5.3 Ma) is of particular interest as an analog for future warming because global temperatures were signifi cantly warmer than today for a sustained period of time, with continental confi gurations similar to present. Here, we estimate mean annual temperature (MAT) based upon three independent proxies from an early Pliocene peat deposit in the Canadian High Arctic. Our proxies, including oxygen isotopes and annual ring widths (MAT =-0.5 ± 1.9 °C), coexistence of paleovegetation (MAT =-0.4 ± 4.1 °C), and bacterial tetraether composition in paleosols (MAT =-0.6 ± 5.0 °C), yield estimates that are statistically indistinguishable. The consensus among these proxies suggests that Arctic temperatures were ~19 °C warmer during the Pliocene than at present, while atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were ~390 ppmv. These elevated Arctic Pliocene temperatures result in a greatly reduced and asymmetrical latitudinal temperature gradient that is probably the result of increased poleward heat transport and decreased albedo. These results indicate that Arctic temperatures may be exceedingly sensitive to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions.

Summary The ratio of leaf internal (ci) to ambient (ca) partial pressure of CO2, defined here as χ, is an index of adjustments in both leaf stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate to environmental conditions. Measurements and proxies of this ratio can be used to constrain vegetation model uncertainties for predicting terrestrial carbon uptake and water use. We test a theory based on the least‐cost optimality hypothesis for modelling historical changes in χ over the 1951–2014 period, across different tree species and environmental conditions, as reconstructed from stable carbon isotopic measurements across a global network of 103 absolutely dated tree‐ring chronologies. The theory predicts optimal χ as a function of air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, ca and atmospheric pressure. The theoretical model predicts 39% of the variance in χ values across sites and years, but underestimates the intersite variability in the reconstructed χ trends, resulting in only 8% of the variance in χ trends across years explained by the model. Overall, our results support theoretical predictions that variations in χ are tightly regulated by the four environmental drivers. They also suggest that explicitly accounting for the effects of plant‐available soil water and other site‐specific characteristics might improve the predictions.

The Arctic has experienced rapid warming and, although there are uncertainties, increases in precipitation are projected to accompany future warming. Climate changes are expected to affect magnitudes of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). Furthermore, ecosystem responses to climate change are likely to be characterized by nonlinearities, thresholds and interactions among system components and the driving variables. These complex interactions increase the difficulty of predicting responses to climate change and necessitate the use of manipulative experiments. In 2003, we established a long-term, multi-level and multi-factor climate change experiment in a polar semidesert in northwest Greenland. Two levels of heating (30 and 60 W m(-2) ) were applied and the higher level was combined with supplemental summer rain. We made plot-level measurements of CO2 exchange, plant community composition, foliar nitrogen concentrations, leaf δ(13) C and NDVI to examine responses to our treatments at ecosystem- and leaf-levels. We confronted simple models of GEP and ER with our data to test hypotheses regarding key drivers of CO2 exchange and to estimate growing season CO2 -C budgets. Low-level warming increased the magnitude of the ecosystem C sink. Meanwhile, high-level warming made the ecosystem a source of C to the atmosphere. When high-level warming was combined with increased summer rain, the ecosystem became a C sink of magnitude similar to that observed under low-level warming. Competition among our ER models revealed the importance of soil moisture as a driving variable, likely through its effects on microbial activity and nutrient cycling. Measurements of community composition and proxies for leaf-level physiology suggest GEP responses largely reflect changes in leaf area of Salix arctica, rather than changes in leaf-level physiology. Our findings indicate that the sign and magnitude of the future High Arctic C budget may depend upon changes in summer rain.

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Increasing temperatures have resulted in reduced growth and increased tree mortality across large areas of western North American forests. We use tree-ring isotope chronologies (δ C and δ O) from live and dead trees from four locations in south-central Alaska, USA, to test whether white spruce trees killed by recent spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) outbreaks showed evidence of drought stress prior to death. Trees that were killed were more sensitive to spring/summer temperature and/or precipitation than trees that survived. At two of our sites, we found greater correlations between the δ C and δ O chronologies and spring/summer temperatures in dead trees than in live trees, suggesting that trees that are more sensitive to temperature-induced drought stress are more likely to be killed. At one site, the difference between δ C in live and dead trees was related to winter/spring precipitation, with dead trees showing stronger correlations between δ C and precipitation, again suggesting increased water stress in dead trees. At all sites where δ O was measured, δ O chronologies showed the greatest difference in climate response between live and dead groups, with δ O in live trees correlating more strongly with late winter precipitation than dead trees. Our results indicate that sites where trees are already sensitive to warm or dry early growing-season conditions experienced the most beetle-kill, which has important implications for forecasting future mortality events in Alaska.

The progress of science is tied to the standardization of measurements, instruments, and data. This is especially true in the Big Data age, where analyzing large data volumes critically hinges on the data being standardized. Accordingly, the lack of community‐sanctioned data standards in paleoclimatology has largely precluded the benefits of Big Data advances in the field. Building upon recent efforts to standardize the format and terminology of paleoclimate data, this article describes the Paleoclimate Community reporTing Standard (PaCTS), a crowdsourced reporting standard for such data. PaCTS captures which information should be included when reporting paleoclimate data, with the goal of maximizing the reuse value of paleoclimate data sets, particularly for synthesis work and comparison to climate model simulations. Initiated by the LinkedEarth project, the process to elicit a reporting standard involved an international workshop in 2016, various forms of digital community engagement over the next few years, and grassroots working groups. Participants in this process identified important properties across paleoclimate archives, in addition to the reporting of uncertainties and chronologies; they also identified archive‐specific properties and distinguished reporting standards for new versus legacy data sets. This work shows that at least 135 respondents overwhelmingly support a drastic increase in the amount of metadata accompanying paleoclimate data sets. Since such goals are at odds with present practices, we discuss a transparent path toward implementing or revising these recommendations in the near future, using both bottom‐up and top‐down approaches.

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The Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG), Wyoming, is one of the few continental glaciers in the contiguous United States known to preserve environmental and climate records spanning recent centuries. A pair of ice cores taken from UFG have been studied extensively to document changes in climate and industrial pollution (most notably, mid-19th century increases in mercury pollution). Fundamental to these studies is the chronology used to map ice-core depth to age. Here, we present a revised chronology for the UFG ice cores based on new measurements and using a novel dating approach of synchronizing continuous water isotope measurements to a nearby tree-ring chronology. While consistent with the few unambiguous age controls underpinning the previous UFG chronologies, the new interpretation suggests a very different time scale for the UFG cores with changes of up to 80 years. Mercury increases previously associated with the mid-19th century Gold Rush now coincide with early-20th century industrial emissions, aligning the UFG record with other North American mercury records from ice and lake sediment cores. Additionally, new UFG records of industrial pollutants parallel changes documented in ice cores from southern Greenland, further validating the new UFG chronologies while documenting the extent of late 19th and early 20th century pollution in remote North America.