Background Spinal muscular atrophy is a rare neuromuscular disorder with a spectrum of severity related to age at onset and the number of SMN2 gene copies. Infantile-onset (≤ 6 months of age) is the most severe spinal muscular atrophy and is the leading monogenetic cause of infant mortality; patients with later-onset (> 6 months of age) spinal muscular atrophy can survive into adulthood. Nusinersen is a new treatment for spinal muscular atrophy. Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of nusinersen for the treatment of patients with infantile-onset spinal muscular atrophy and later-onset spinal muscular atrophy in Sweden. Methods One Markov cohort health-state transition model was developed for each population. The infantile-onset and later-onset models were based on the efficacy results from the ENDEAR phase III trial and the CHERISH phase III trial, respectively. The cost effectiveness of nusinersen in both models was compared with standard of care in Sweden. Results For a time horizon of 40 years in the infantile-onset model and 80 years in the later-onset model, treatment with nusinersen resulted in 3.86 and 9.54 patient incremental quality-adjusted life-years and 0.02 and 2.39 caregiver incremental quality-adjusted life-years and an incremental cost of 21.9 and 38.0 million SEK (Swedish krona), respectively. These results translated into incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (including caregiver quality-adjusted life-years) of 5.64 million SEK (€551,300) and 3.19 million SEK (€311,800) per quality-adjusted life-year gained in the infantile-onset model and later-onset model, respectively. Conclusions Treatment with nusinersen resulted in overall survival and quality-adjusted life-year benefits but with incremental costs above 21 million SEK (€2 million) [mainly associated with maintenance treatment with nusinersen over a patient's lifespan]. Nusinersen was not cost effective when using a willingness-to-pay threshold of 2 million SEK (€195,600), which has been considered in a recent discussion by the Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits Agency as a reasonable threshold for rare disease. Nonetheless, nusinersen gained reimbursement in Sweden in 2017 for paediatric patients (below 18 years old) with spinal muscular atrophy type I-IIIa.

BackgroundBiological therapies are increasingly used to treat ulcerative colitis (UC).AimTo compare the efficacy of biologics in adults with moderately-to-severely active UC, stratified by prior exposure to anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy.MethodsA systematic literature review was undertaken to identify studies of biologics approved for UC. Network meta-analysis was conducted for endpoints at induction and maintenance.ResultsSeven studies were included in the meta-analysis of induction treatment for anti-TNF therapy-naïve patients. All biologics were more effective than placebo in inducing clinical response, clinical remission, and mucosal healing. Infliximab demonstrated a statistically significant improvement over adalimumab in clinical response (odds ratio [OR] [95% credible interval (CrI)]: 2.19 [1.35–3.55]), clinical remission (OR [95% CrI]: 2.81 [1.49–5.49]), and mucosal healing (OR [95% CrI]: 2.23 [1.21–4.14]); there were no other significant differences between biologics for induction efficacy. Five studies were included in the meta-analysis of maintenance treatment, two studies rerandomised responder patients at end of induction, and three followed the same patients ‘straight through’. To account for design differences, the number of responders at end of induction was assumed to be equivalent to the number rerandomised. Vedolizumab showed significantly different durable clinical response from comparators (OR [95% CrI] infliximab 3.18 [1.14–9.20], golimumab 2.33 [1.04–5.41], and adalimumab 3.96 [1.67–9.84]). In anti-TNF therapy-experienced patients, only vedolizumab and adalimumab could be compared. At induction, no significant differences in efficacy were seen. During maintenance, vedolizumab showed significantly improved rates of mucosal healing versus adalimumab (OR [95% CrI]: 6.72 [1.36–41.0]).ConclusionsThis study expands the understanding of comparative efficacies of biologic treatments for UC, encompassing outcomes and populations not previously studied. All biologic treatments were effective for UC during induction. Vedolizumab demonstrated possible clinical benefits in the maintenance setting versus all comparators, irrespective of prior anti-TNF exposure and after adjusting for differences in study design.

Objectives. Uncertainty in survival prediction beyond trial follow-up is highly influential in cost-effectiveness analyses of oncology products. This research provides an empirical evaluation of the accuracy of alternative methods and recommendations for their implementation. Methods. Mature (15-year) survival data were reconstructed from a published database study for “no treatment,” radiotherapy, surgery plus radiotherapy, and surgery in early stage non–small cell lung cancer in an elderly patient population. Censored data sets were created from these data to simulate immature trial data (for 1- to 10-year follow-up). A second data set with mature (9-year) survival data for no treatment was used to extrapolate the predictions from models fitted to the first data set. Six methodological approaches were used to fit models to the simulated data and extrapolate beyond trial follow-up. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the relative difference in mean survival estimates and the absolute error in the difference in mean survival v. the control with those from the original mature survival data set. Results. Model performance depended on the treatment comparison scenario. All models performed reasonably well when there was a small short-term treatment effect, with the Bayesian model coping better with shorter follow-up times. However, in other scenarios, the most flexible Bayesian model that could be estimated in practice appeared to fit the data less well than the models that used the external data separately. Where there was a large treatment effect (hazard ratio = 0.4), models that used external data separately performed best. Conclusions. Models that directly use mature external data can improve the accuracy of survival predictions. Recommendations on modeling strategies are made for different treatment benefit scenarios.

Background Locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that has progressed after first-line treatment has a poor prognosis. Recent randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have demonstrated survival benefits of alternative treatments to docetaxel. However, information is lacking on which patients benefit the most and what drug or regimen is optimal. We report a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of second-line treatments in all subgroup combinations determined by histology, programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation. Methods MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, Biosciences Information Service (using the Dialog Platform), Cochrane Library, and abstracts from scientific meetings were searched for RCTs published up to September 2015. Key outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Bayesian hierarchical exchangeable NMAs were conducted to calculate mean survival times and relative differences for eight subgroups, using docetaxel as the reference comparator. For OS, the NMA was based on hazard ratios applied to a first-order fractional polynomial model fitted to the reference treatment. For PFS, a second-order fractional polynomial model was fitted to reconstructed patient-level data for the entire network of evidence. Results The search identified 30 studies containing 17 different treatment regimens. Docetaxel plus ramucirumab was associated with a significant improvement in OS and PFS, relative to docetaxel, regardless of patient type. Docetaxel plus nintedanib showed similar efficacy to docetaxel plus ramucirumab in the nonsquamous populations. EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) erlotinib and gefitinib showed superior levels of efficacy in EGFR mutation-positive populations and the one PD-1 immunotherapy (nivolumab) studied showed superior efficacy in the populations exhibiting high PD-L1 expression. Conclusions In the absence of head-to-head comparisons, we performed a mixed-treatment analysis to synthesize evidence of the efficacy of each treatment. Benefits are optimized by targeting specific treatments to individual patients guided by histology, PD-L1 expression, and EGFR mutation status. Systematic review registration This review is registered in PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42014013780 available at www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO ). Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5569-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Aim: A systematic literature review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials in patients receiving therapy for HER2+ unresectable/metastatic breast cancer after ≥1 HER2-directed therapy was conducted to compare progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Methods: Hazard ratios (HRs) and relative differences from fractional polynomials (FPs) for PFS and OS were assessed by Bayesian network meta-analyses. Results: For PFS, surface under the cumulative rankogram (SUCRA) ranked tucatinib plus trastuzumab with capecitabine as highest in both HR and FP analyses, followed by T-DM1 monotherapy and neratinib plus capecitabine. For OS, SUCRA ranked tucatinib plus trastuzumab with capecitabine as highest in both HR and FP analyses, followed by pertuzumab plus trastuzumab with capecitabine and T-DM1 monotherapy, with similar scores. Conclusion: Tucatinib plus trastuzumab with capecitabine, and T-DM1 monotherapy, consistently showed improved PFS and OS versus lapatinib/trastuzumab plus capecitabine and non-targeted treatments.

Background Standard first-line treatments for advanced soft tissue sarcoma (STS) have changed little for 40 years, and outcomes have been poor. Recently, the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration conditionally approved olaratumab in combination with doxorubicin (Olara + Dox) based on a randomized phase II trial that reported a significant 11.8-month improvement in median survival versus single-agent doxorubicin (Dox). The present study investigated the cost-effectiveness of Olara + Dox compared with Dox and five other standard-of-care regimens from the US payer perspective. Methods An economic model was constructed to estimate costs and outcomes over patients' lifetimes from start of therapy. Progression-free and overall survival were based on survival analysis of patient-level data and a meta-analysis. Adverse-event rates were based on trials. Costs were from published sources. Results Olara + Dox resulted in an estimated additional 1.27 life-years (LYs) compared with Dox, with an increase in total expected lifetime costs of $133,653. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at $105,408 per LY gained; in a fully incremental analysis, all other regimens were dominated (higher costs and lower LYs or a higher ICER). Conclusion Olara + Dox is cost-effective for STS treatment compared with Dox and other standard-of-care regimens at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $150,000 per LY and above.

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Background Clinicians, patients, payers and policymakers require relevant, high-quality evidence to support decision-making regarding the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC). In the absence of head-to-head trials, network meta-analysis (NMA) can be used to compare treatments. We conducted an NMA to compare the efficacy of ontamalimab (anti-MAdCAM-1) using its phase 2 data, with all biologics and novel small molecules for which induction study data on endoscopic response were available. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted in November 2017 to identify published randomised controlled trials of induction treatment in patients with moderate-to-severe UC. An NMA of the identified studies was performed using random-effects models and methods based on NICE guidance. Odds ratios and 95% credible intervals were calculated to describe the relative differences between treatments and placebo in terms of efficacy in inducing endoscopic response. Results were examined by anti-TNF status (naïve vs. experienced). Results In total, 15 phase 2 and phase 3 induction studies of the following agents were available and included: adalimumab (160/80mg), etrolizumab (100mg and 300mg), golimumab (200/100mg), infliximab (5mg), ontamalimab (22.5mg and 75mg), ozanimod (0.5mg and 1mg), tofacitinib (10mg) and vedolizumab (300mg). The definition of endoscopic response (improvement) in all trials was a Mayo endoscopic subscore of ≤1. Homogeneity between studies was good, enabling pooling of results. Figure 1 shows odds ratios for induction of endoscopic response with treatments relative to placebo in anti-TNF-naïve and -experienced patients. All treatments performed significantly better than placebo in anti-TNF-naïve patients, with the exception of both doses of etrolizumab and ozanimod 0.5 mg. Significant differences between some treatments were observed; specifically, ontamalimab 22.5 mg (p = 0.0277), tofacitinib 10 mg (p = 0.0233) and infliximab 5 mg (p = 0.0047) were all superior to adalimumab 160/80 mg. Conclusion This study suggests that ontamalimab, infliximab and tofacitinib could be superior to adalimumab in inducing endoscopic healing, although it was conducted before any large-scale head-to-head trials of these drugs. Furthermore, large variances due to differing endpoint timings, the combination of phase 2 and phase 3 data, and lack of control for placebo response rates preclude firm conclusions being drawn.