Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) contributes ≈70% of the total tuna catch in the Pacific Ocean. This species occurs in the upper mixed‐layer throughout the equatorial region, but the largest catches are taken from the warmpool in the western equatorial Pacific. Analysis of catch and effort data for US purse seine fisheries in the western Pacific has demonstrated that one of the most successful fishing grounds is located in the vicinity of a convergence zone between the warm (>28–29°C) low‐salinity water of the warmpool and the cold saline water of equatorial upwelling in the central Pacific (Lehodey et al., 1997). This zone of convergence, identified by a well‐marked salinity front and approximated by the 28.5°C isotherm, oscillates zonally over several thousands of km in correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The present study focuses on the prediction of skipjack tuna forage that is expected to be a major factor in explaining the basin‐scale distribution of the stock. It could also explain the close relation between displacements of skipjack tuna and the convergence zone on the eastern edge of the warmpool. A simple bio‐geochemical model was coupled with a general circulation model, allowing reasonable predictions of new primary production in the equatorial Pacific from mid‐1992 to mid‐1995. The biological transfer of this production toward tuna forage was simply parameterized according to the food chain length and redistributed by the currents using the circulation model. Tuna forage accumulated in the convergence zone of the horizontal currents, which corresponds to the warmpool/equatorial upwelling boundary. Predicted forage maxima corresponded well with high catch rates.

Abstract. The impact of the strong 1997-1998 E1Nifio event on nitrate distribution and new production in the equatorial Pacific is investigated, using a combination of satellite and in situ observations, and an ocean circulation-biogeochemical model. The general circulation model is forced with realistic wind stresses deduced from ERS-1 and ERS-2 scatterometers over the 1993-1998 period. Its outputs are used to drive a biogeochemical model where biology is parameterized as a nitrate sink. We first show that the models capture the essential circulation and biogeochemical equatorial features along with their temporal evolution during the 1997-1998 event, although the modeled variability seems underestimated. In particular, the model fails to reproduce unusual bloom conditions. This is attributed to the simplicity of the biological model. An analysis of the physical mechanisms responsible for the dramatic decrease of the biological equatorial production during E1 Nifio is then proposed. During the growth phase (November 1996 through June 1997), nitrate-poor waters of the western Pacific are advected eastward, and the vertical supply of nitrate is reduced due to nitracline deepening. These processes result in the invasion of the equatorial Pacific by nitrate-poor waters during the mature phase (November 1997 through January 1998). At that time, the central Pacific is nitrate limited and experiences warm pool oligotrophic conditions. As a result, the modeled new production over the equatorial Pacific drops by 40% compared to the mean 1993-1996 values. Then, while E1Nifio conditions are still present at the surface, the nitracline shallows over most of the basin in early 1998. Therefore the strengthening of the trade winds in May 1998 efficiently switches on the nitrate vertical supply over a large part of the equatorial Pacific, leading to a rapid return of high biological production conditions. Strong La Nifia conditions then develop, resulting in a biologically rich tongue extending as far west as 160øE for several months.

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