UDC 62-50 Methods of learning Bayesian networks from databases, basic concepts of Bayesian networks, basic methods of learning, methods of learning parameters, and the structures of a network and hidden parameters are considered. Basic definitions and key concepts with illustrative examples are presented.
The problem of the forecasting stock prices and indexes in the stock market is considered. The application of new class of neural networks -cascade neo-fuzzy neural networks for the forecasting is investigated. For the forecasting data of the company's stock quote NYSE and the RTS index and the Dow Jones over the last year have been used. The comparison of results for the cascade neo-fuzzy neural networks with varying types of membership functions with the classical fuzzy neural networks, Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) and fuzzy GMDH has been performed. The best results among the fuzzy neural networks showed cascaded NF network with Gaussian membership functions, their error does not exceed 3%.
The problems of intelligent control system organization are considered: determining the number of intellectualization levels, the sequence of actions required for analysis of the control process, adding to the control system new elements providing for enhancement degree of its intellectualization, special features of its structural organization, estimating the possibilities of intellectualization, providing examples of practical intellectualization. The primary purpose of the study is to determine the purposeful organization of intelligent control systems as well as the necessity and usefulness of systemic consideration that takes into consideration the following: requirements of the problem statement, characteristics of the environment, means for acquiring and processing necessary information, working control mechanisms, functional characteristics and experience of user-operator. As a result of the analysis performed, characteristic levels of the intellectual development of a system were determined, the stages of performing intellectualization of a control system were proposed, and the effectiveness of proposed solutions for practical problems was shown.
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