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Droughts and other extreme precipitation events are predicted to increase in intensity, duration, and extent, with uncertain implications for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. Soil wetting from above (precipitation) results in a characteristically different pattern of pore-filling than wetting from below (groundwater), with larger, well-connected pores filling before finer pore spaces, unlike groundwater rise in which capillary forces saturate the finest pores first. Here we demonstrate that pore-scale wetting patterns interact with antecedent soil moisture conditions to alter pore-scale, core-scale, and field-scale C dynamics. Drought legacy and wetting direction are perhaps more important determinants of short-term C mineralization than current soil moisture content in these soils. Our results highlight that microbial access to C is not solely limited by physical protection, but also by drought or wetting-induced shifts in hydrologic connectivity. We argue that models should treat soil moisture within a three-dimensional framework emphasizing hydrologic conduits for C and resource diffusion.

Soils represent the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and the balance between soil organic carbon (SOC) formation and loss will drive powerful carbon-climate feedbacks over the coming century. To date, efforts to predict SOC dynamics have rested on pool-based models, which assume classes of SOC with internally homogenous physicochemical properties. However, emerging evidence suggests that soil carbon turnover is not dominantly controlled by the chemistry of carbon inputs, but rather by restrictions on microbial access to organic matter in the spatially heterogeneous soil environment. The dynamic processes that control the physicochemical protection of carbon translate poorly to pool-based SOC models; as a result, we are challenged to mechanistically predict how environmental change will impact movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. Here, we propose a novel conceptual framework to explore controls on belowground carbon cycling: Probabilistic Representation of Organic Matter Interactions within the Soil Environment (PROMISE). In contrast to traditional model frameworks, PROMISE does not attempt to define carbon pools united by common thermodynamic or functional attributes. Rather, the PROMISE concept considers how SOC cycling rates are governed by the stochastic processes that influence the proximity between microbial decomposers and organic matter, with emphasis on their physical location in the soil matrix. We illustrate the applications of this framework with a new biogeochemical simulation model that traces the fate of individual carbon atoms as they interact with their environment, undergoing biochemical transformations and moving through the soil pore space. We also discuss how the PROMISE framework reshapes dialogue around issues related to SOC management in a changing world. We intend the PROMISE framework to spur the development of new hypotheses, analytical tools, and model structures across disciplines that will illuminate mechanistic controls on the flow of carbon between plant, soil, and atmospheric pools.

Soil microorganisms regulate fundamental biochemical processes in plant litter decomposition and soil organic matter (SOM) transformations. Understanding how microbial communities respond to changes in vegetation is critical for improving predictions of how land-cover change affects belowground carbon storage and nutrient availability. We measured intra- and interannual variability in soil and forest litter microbial community composition and activity via phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA) and extracellular enzyme activity across a well-replicated, long-term chronosequence of secondary forests growing on abandoned pastures in the wet subtropical forest life zone of Puerto Rico. Microbial community PLFA structure differed between young secondary forests and older secondary and primary forests, following successional shifts in tree species composition. These successional patterns held across seasons, but the microbial groups driving these patterns differed over time. Microbial community composition from the forest litter differed greatly from those in the soil, but did not show the same successional trends. Extracellular enzyme activity did not differ with forest succession, but varied by season with greater rates of potential activity in the dry seasons. We found few robust significant relationships among microbial community parameters and soil pH, moisture, carbon, and nitrogen concentrations. Observed inter- and intrannual variability in microbial community structure and activity reveal the importance of a multiple, temporal sampling strategy when investigating microbial community dynamics with land-use change. Successional control over microbial composition with forest recovery suggests strong links between above and belowground communities.