There is a crucial need to understand the genetic consequences of landscape modifications on continuous populations that could become fragmented, and to evaluate the degree of differentiation of isolated populations that were historically part of the core. Using 15 microsatellite loci, we evaluated the genetic structure of American black bears ( Ursus americanus Pallas, 1780) across a vast, contiguous Ontario landscape (>1 × 106 km2) that largely represents their pre-European settlement distribution. Because geographic barriers are absent, we predicted that isolation by distance would drive genetic structure. We identified three genetic clusters (Northwest, Southeast, and Bruce Peninsula) that were less differentiated than when assessed with mtDNA, suggesting the influence of male-biased dispersal on large-scale genetic differentiation. Isolation by distance (r = 0.552, P = 0.001) was supported by a weak, clinal variation between Northwest and Southeast, illustrating the challenges to delineate populations in wide-ranging taxa. The Bruce Peninsula cluster, confined to a small area under strong anthropogenic pressures, was more differentiated from neighbouring clusters (FST > 0.13, P < 0.0001), with a genetic diversity corresponding to disjunct populations of black bears. Our results could be used in landscape genetics models to project the evolution of population differentiation based on upcoming landscape modifications in northern regions of North America.

The persistence of small populations is influenced by genetic structure and functional connectivity. We used two network-based approaches to understand the persistence of the northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus) and the southern Idaho ground squirrel (U. endemicus), two congeners of conservation concern. These graph theoretic approaches are conventionally applied to social or transportation networks, but here are used to study population persistence and connectivity. Population graph analyses revealed that local extinction rapidly reduced connectivity for the southern species, while connectivity for the northern species could be maintained following local extinction. Results from gravity models complemented those of population graph analyses, and indicated that potential vegetation productivity and topography drove connectivity in the northern species. For the southern species, development (roads) and small-scale topography reduced connectivity, while greater potential vegetation productivity increased connectivity. Taken together, the results of the two network-based methods (population graph analyses and gravity models) suggest the need for increased conservation action for the southern species, and that management efforts have been effective at maintaining habitat quality throughout the current range of the northern species. To prevent further declines, we encourage the continuation of management efforts for the northern species, whereas conservation of the southern species requires active management and additional measures to curtail habitat fragmentation. Our combination of population graph analyses and gravity models can inform conservation strategies of other species exhibiting patchy distributions.

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The processes leading to genetic isolation influence a population’s local extinction risk, and should thus be identified before conservation actions are implemented. Natural or human-induced circumstances can result in historical or contemporary barriers to gene flow and/or demographic bottlenecks. Distinguishing between these hypotheses can be achieved by comparing genetic diversity and differentiation in isolated vs. continuous neighboring populations. In Ontario, American black bears (Ursus americanus) are continuously distributed, genetically diverse, and exhibit an isolation-by-distance structuring pattern, except on the Bruce Peninsula (BP). To identify the processes that led to the genetic isolation of BP black bears, we modelled various levels of historical and contemporary migration and population size reductions using forward simulations. We compared simulation results with empirical genetic indices from Ontario black bear populations under different levels of geographic isolation, and conducted additional simulations to determine if translocations could help achieve genetic restoration. From a genetic standpoint, conservation concerns for BP black bears are warranted because our results show that: i) a recent demographic bottleneck associated with recently reduced migration best explains the low genetic diversity on the BP; and ii) under sustained isolation, BP black bears could lose between 70% and 80% of their rare alleles within 100 years. Although restoring migration corridors would be the most effective method to enhance long-term genetic diversity and prevent inbreeding, it is unrealistic to expect connectivity to be re-established. Current levels of genetic diversity could be maintained by successfully translocating 10 bears onto the peninsula every 5 years. Such regular translocations may be more practical than landscape restoration, because areas connecting the peninsula to nearby mainland black bear populations have been irreversibly modified by humans, and form strong barriers to movement.

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