The spatial distribution of agricultural grassland in England and Wales has been assessed using a land evaluation model applied to information describing soils, climate and topography on a 5 x 5 km grid. The model calculates land suitability for grassland from assessments of trafficability/ poaching risk and yield class. l'he spatial distribution of agricultural grassland was modelled for a 30 year climatic baseline and for incremental changes in temperature and proportional changes in precipitation relative to that baseline.Model estimates for the current distribution of grassland suitability agree well with observed data of actual grassland distribution. The best suited land occurs in south west England, Wales, the Welsh borders and Cheshire with fragmented areas of well suited land in north west England and on the Pens and Humberhead levels.The climatic sensitivity analysis suggests that grassland production in England and Wales is resilient to small perturbations in mean temperature (up to + 2 "C) and precipitation ( lO'?o). The effect of increasing temperature by 1 'C is almost completely offset by precipitation increases of 10'2b resulting in little change to the distribution of grassland suitability. However, greater temperature changes ( + 4 "C) have a major influence on the ability of land to support intensively managed grassland because of increased drought stress. Results indicate that a change in the climate comparable with current best estimates for the future would benetit grassland on good quality land at higher altitudes.
The effects of climate change on crop suitability in England and Wales were estimated by systematically adjusting agroclimatic data inputs to a land evaluation model. Mean temperature rises of 1 and 2°C increased drought risk and reduced the length of time when soil was at field capacity over-winter by raising potential evapotranspiration. In eastern England, this change had a detrimental effect on the potential for cultivating winter wheat because of drought stress. In northern and western England and Wales, drier conditions promoted greater opportunities for soil tillage, especially when temperature rises were associated with decreased precipitation. The effect of increased temperature was offset by increased precipitation. The magnitude of the drought stress and length of field capacity periods are similar to current mean conditions when a +1 °C temperature change is coupled with a 10% increase in precipitation. This demonstrates that winter wheat suitability in England and Wales is affected more by changes in precipitation than by changes in temperature. The local limitations of soils and relief notwithstanding, it appears that the northern and western areas of England and Wales are most likely to gain from a warmer, drier climate.
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