The article describes the automation of the production forecast calculation method for producing wells. Calculation for each well based on monthly production report data and current residual recoverable reserves. The Arps curve and the Corey function are used to approximate the actual production curves. Comparative analysis of actual data with retro-forecast data showed high accuracy with a short calculation time.
New approach of complex uncertainties analysis at the exploration stage of the field is considered not only for geological properties but also for reservoir engineering, including the uncertainty of type of hydrocarbons saturation. The method shown in the work is based on the probabilistic method of HIIP estimation which is followed by probabilistic reservoir engineering uncertainties assessment in production profiles calculation.
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