Vorkuta Transport Hub and its Role in Development of the Arctic Area (текст статьи на англ. яз-English text of the article-p. 149) Воркутинский транспортный узел рассматривается как один из немногих крупных региональных центров российского Севера, который в силу своего расположения является столь важным для развития коммуникационных связей в зоне Европейской и Приуральской Арктики. Показано, что мощности этого узла, имеющего в составе инфраструктуры все виды транспорта, кроме водного, обеспечивают текущие потребности края в грузовых и пассажирских перевозках. Для освоения природных богатств арктического региона и выполнения других растущих задач необходимо, тем не менее, усилить существующий потенциал Воркуты, в первую очередь за счёт реализации транспортных проектов, которые называют и анализируют авторы. Ключевые слова: Арктика, Воркута, транспортный узел, инфраструктура, виды транспорта, перспективные проекты. Киселенко Анатолий Николаевич-доктор технических наук, доктор экономических наук, профессор, руководитель лаборатории проблем транспорта Института Севера Коми научного центра Уральского отделения РАН, Сыктывкар, Россия. Малащук Пётр Александрович-кандидат технических наук, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории проблем транспорта Института Севера Коми научного центра Уральского отделения РАН, Сыктывкар, Россия.
The relevance of the article is determined by the increasing role of the Arctic transport system in the economy of the Russian Federation: involvement of territories of the Arctic zone of the country in economic activities, an increase in their social and economic potential. The development of the northern territories is directly related to existing and future capabilities of the Arctic transport system, for successful functioning of which it is necessary to provide it with feeder transport network.The objective of the work is to determine the scenarios according to which development of these feeder roads can be carried out. When writing the article, the methods of systemic, comparative, and statistical analysis were particularly used.The paper clarifies the definition of the Arctic transport system. It is noted that scenarios for development of feeder routes to it should be linked to its general development, as well as to the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The European and Ural Arctic subregion is highlighted, where development of feeder routes is most important in connection with the growth of economic activity on Yamal Peninsula. With reference to the works of domestic and foreign authors, strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation, it is assumed that according to the degree of achievement of target indicators of traffic volumes along the Northern Sea Route, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for formation of feeder network can be activated. The final implementation of one of those scenarios is determined by political, natural, and other risks.When developing scenarios for formation of transport feeder network to the Arctic transport system, the emergence of new modes of transport should be considered. New modes of transport can provide linking of remote objects to the trunk transport networks or eliminate the gaps emerging in them.The use of new modes of transport in the Russian Arctic should be carried out only after testing at specialized test sites, where their safety for transportation of passengers and goods, as well as for the environment, will be determined.The work was carried out within the framework of the comprehensive program of fundamental scientific research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2018–2020 and is associated with the need to increase the capacity of the main ports of the European and Ural Arctic and the volume of traffic along the Northern Sea Route.
The objective of the work is to study methods for forecasting transport systems development and determine their suitability under economic instability conditions.The modern methodology for forecasting the development of regional transport systems includes expert and formal methods, methods of active and passive forecasting.The use of expert systems, scenario forecasting and strategic planning can be mentioned as promising areas.Scenario planning is more adapted to non-linear transformations in the economy than traditional linear planning. In traditional planning, the past explains the present, in scenario planning, the future is the meaning of the present, the future is created.The variety and instability of statistical indicators encourages creation of hybrid systems of forecasting models. They are based on regression models, as well as on intelligent models, including artificial neural networks, analytical networks, etc., which are complemented by scenario forecasting.The identification of the main factors that determine the functioning of the transport network of the European and Ural Arctic facilitated the choice of methods for forecasting its development. The main factors negatively affecting the development of the transport network of the region under the study are the insufficiency of freight flows in the ports; insufficient capacity of seaports’ access roads; political, social, natural-climatic, and other risks.The example of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) illustrates the use of a hybrid system of forecasting models to obtain possible values of traffic volumes. Based on the analysis of regression models and the study of the possibility of achieving the target traffic volume by 2024, it was concluded that this model is basically acceptable for forecasting the volume of goods transported along the NSR.
The paper presents the results of the analysis of air transport activities in the European and Ural North of Russia. Studies have shown that the ex¬isting air service network does not fully meet the needs of the population and organizations of the region under consideration in air transportation. The dynamics and structure of passenger traffic passing though the airports of the region are ana¬lyzed. The issues of subsidizing passenger air transportation are considered. The results of cal¬culation of the level of aviation mobility of the population of the European and Ural North of Russia are presented. The issues of creating a fed¬eral state-owned enterprise for air transport and restoring the activities of Polar aviation in the re¬gion are considered. It is shown that further pro¬spects for the development of air transport net¬work in the European and Ural North of Russia are associated with an increase in the level of air accessibility of the territory under consideration.
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