Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A. Baklanov et al.: Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in EuropeAbstract. Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

Abstract. We present a comparison of tropospheric NO 2 from OMI measurements to the median of an ensemble of Regional Air Quality (RAQ) models, and an intercomparison of the contributing RAQ models and two global models for the period July 2008-June 2009 over Europe. The model forecasts were produced routinely on a daily basis in the context of the European GEMS ("Global and regional Earth-system (atmosphere) Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data") project. The tropospheric vertical column of the RAQ ensemble median shows a spatial distribution which agrees well with the OMI NO 2 observations, with a correlation r=0.8. This is higher than the correlations from any one of the individual RAQ models, which supports the use of a model ensemble approach for regional air pollution forecasting. The global models show high correlations compared Correspondence to: V. Huijnen (huijnen@knmi.nl) to OMI, but with significantly less spatial detail, due to their coarser resolution. Deviations in the tropospheric NO 2 columns of individual RAQ models from the mean were in the range of 20-34% in winter and 40-62% in summer, suggesting that the RAQ ensemble prediction is relatively more uncertain in the summer months.The ensemble median shows a stronger seasonal cycle of NO 2 columns than OMI, and the ensemble is on average 50% below the OMI observations in summer, whereas in winter the bias is small. On the other hand the ensemble median shows a somewhat weaker seasonal cycle than NO 2 surface observations from the Dutch Air Quality Network, and on average a negative bias of 14%.Full profile information was available for two RAQ models and for the global models. For these models the retrieval averaging kernel was applied. Minor differences are found for area-averaged model columns with and without applying the kernel, which shows that the impact of replacing the a priori profiles by the RAQ model profiles is on average small.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. V. Huijnen et al.:Comparison of NO 2 in regional and global models to OMI However, the contrast between major hotspots and rural areas is stronger for the direct modeled vertical columns than the columns where the averaging kernels are applied, related to a larger relative contribution of the free troposphere and the coarse horizontal resolution in the a priori profiles compared to the RAQ models.In line with validation results reported in the literature, summertime concentrations in the lowermost boundary layer in the a priori profiles from the DOMINO product are significantly larger than the RAQ model concentrations and surface observations over the Netherlands. This affects the profile shape, and contributes to a high bias in OMI tropospheric columns over polluted regions. The global models indicate that the upper troposphere may contribute significantly to the total column and it is important to account for this in comparisons with RAQ models. A combination of upper troposphere model biases, the a priori profile effec...

Abstract.We discuss the capability of current state-of-theart chemistry and transport models to reproduce air quality trends and interannual variability. Documenting these strengths and weaknesses on the basis of historical simulations is essential before the models are used to investigate future air quality projections. To achieve this, a coordinated modelling exercise was performed in the framework of the CityZEN European Project. It involved six regional and global chemistry-transport models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD, OSLOCTM2 and MOZART) simulating air quality over the past decade in the Western European anthropogenic emissions hotspots.Comparisons between models and observations allow assessing the skills of the models to capture the trends in basic atmospheric constituents (NO 2 , O 3 , and PM 10 ). We find that the trends of primary constituents are well reproduced (except in some countries -owing to their sensitivity to the emission inventory) although capturing the more moderate trends of secondary species such as O 3 is more challenging. Apart from the long term trend, the modelled monthly variCorrespondence to: A. Colette (augustin.colette@ineris.fr) ability is consistent with the observations but the year-to-year variability is generally underestimated.A comparison of simulations where anthropogenic emissions are kept constant is also investigated. We find that the magnitude of the emission-driven trend exceeds the natural variability for primary compounds. We can thus conclude that emission management strategies have had a significant impact over the past 10 yr, hence supporting further emission reductions.

Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. I. Binietoglou et al.: Dust model comparison methodologyAbstract. Systematic measurements of dust concentration profiles at a continental scale were recently made possible by the development of synergistic retrieval algorithms using combined lidar and sun photometer data and the establishment of robust remote-sensing networks in the framework of Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network (ACTRIS)/European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET). We present a methodology for using these capabilities as a tool for examining the performance of dust transport models. The methodology includes considerations for the selection of a suitable data set and appropriate metrics for the exploration of the results. The approach is demonstrated for four regional dust transport models (BSC-DREAM8b v2, NMMB/BSC-DUST, DREAM-ABOL, DREAM8-NMME-MACC) using dust observations performed at 10 ACTRIS/EARLINET stations. The observations, which include coincident multi-wavelength lidar and sun photometer measurements, were processed with the Lidar-Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC) to retrieve aerosol concentration profiles. The methodology proposed here shows advantages when compared to traditional evaluation techniques that utilize separately the available measurements such as separating the contribution of dust from other aerosol types on the lidar profiles and avoiding model assumptions related to the conversion of concentration fields to aerosol extinction values. When compared to LIRIC retrievals, the simulated dust vertical structures were found to be in good agreement for all models with correlation values between 0.5 and 0.7 in the 1-6 km range, where most dust is typically observed. The absolute dust concentration was typically underestimated with mean bias values of −40 to −20 µg m −3 at 2 km, the altitude of maximum mean concentration. The reported differences among the models found in this comparison indicate the benefit of the systematic use of the proposed approach in future dust model evaluation studies.

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Abstract. In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models.A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented.The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NO x will drop down to 30 % to 50 % of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O 3 will slightly increase in NO x saturated areas but the overall O 3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O 3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45 % to 70 % of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximum O 3 is higher than 120 µg m −3 more than 25 days per year will drop from 43 % down to 2 to 8 %.We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40 % Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

The simulation of the coupled evolution of atmospheric dynamics, pollutant transport, chemical reactions and atmospheric composition is one of the most challenging tasks in environmental modelling, climate change studies, and weather forecasting for the next decades as they all involve strongly integrated processes. Weather strongly influences air quality (AQ) and atmospheric transport of hazardous materials, while atmospheric composition can influence both weather and climate by directly modifying the atmospheric radiation budget or indirectly affecting cloud formation. Until recently, however, due to the scientific complexities and lack of computational power, atmospheric chemistry and weather forecasting have developed as separate disciplines, leading to the development of separate modelling systems that are only loosely coupled.

The continuous increase in computer power has now reached a stage that enables us to perform online coupling of regional meteorological models with atmospheric chemical transport models. The focus on integrated systems is timely, since recent research has shown that meteorology and chemistry feedbacks are important in the context of many research areas and applications, including numerical weather prediction (NWP), AQ forecasting as well as climate and Earth system modelling. However, the relative importance of online integration and its priorities, requirements and levels of detail necessary for representing different processes and feedbacks can greatly vary for these related communities: (i) NWP, (ii) AQ forecasting and assessments, (iii) climate and earth system modelling. Additional applications are likely to benefit from online modelling, e.g.: simulation of volcanic ash or forest fire plumes, pollen warnings, dust storms, oil/gas fires, geo-engineering tests involving changes in the radiation balance.

The COST Action ES1004 – European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling (EuMetChem) – aims at paving the way towards a new generation of online integrated atmospheric chemical transport and meteorology modelling with two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including dynamics, chemistry, clouds, radiation, boundary layer and emissions. As its first task, we summarise the current status of European modelling practices and experience with online coupled modelling of meteorology with atmospheric chemistry including feedback mechanisms and attempt reviewing the various issues connected to the different modules of such online coupled models but also providing recommendations for coping with them for the benefit of the modelling community at large

We discuss the capability of current state-of-the-art chemistry and transport models to reproduce air quality trends and inter annual variability. Documenting these strengths and weaknesses on the basis of historical simulations is essential before the models are used to investigate future air quality projections. To achieve this, a coordinated modelling exercise was performed in the framework of the CityZEN European Project. It involved six regional and global chemistry-transport models (Bolchem, Chimere, Emep, Eurad, OsloCTM2 and Mozart) simulating air quality over the past decade in the Western European anthropogenic emissions hotspots. <br></br> Comparisons between models and observations allow assessing the skills of the models to capture the trends in basic atmospheric constituents (NO₂, O₃, and PM₁₀). We find that the trends of primary constituents are well reproduced (except in some countries – owing to their sensitivity to the emission inventory) although capturing the more moderate trends of secondary species such as O₃ is more challenging. Apart from the long term trend, the modelled monthly variability is consistent with the observations but the year-to-year variability is generally underestimated. <br></br> A comparison of simulations where anthropogenic emissions are kept constant is also investigated. We find that the magnitude of the emission-driven trend exceeds the natural variability for primary compounds. We can thus conclude that emission management strategies have had a significant impact over the past 10 yr, hence supporting further emission reductions strategies