The predictive accuracy of STABLE-2000 and STABLE-2007 was examined within a prospective research design in a German-speaking sample of 263 adult male prison-released sexual offenders followed up for an average of 6.4 years. The STABLE-2007 was significantly related to all outcomes (AUC = 0.67-0.71), whereas the STABLE-2000 demonstrated only weak predictive accuracy for sexual reoffense (AUC = 0.62). Supporting the results of the construction sample, the STABLE-2007 incrementally added to the predictive accuracy of the STATIC-99 for violent and general reoffense (conviction and incarceration). Moreover, the STABLE-2007 total scores and the nominal risk/need categories made significant incremental contributions over the SORAG for predicting sexual reoffense.

This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

No abstract

The preparation of 10 (1,5)naphthalenophanes (10a-j) by photo-dehydro-Diels-Alder (PDDA) reaction is described. Owing to hindered rotation around the biaryl axis, compounds 10 are axially chiral and the separation of enantiomers by chiral HPLC was demonstrated in three cases (10a,b,e). The absolute configuration of the isolated enantiomers could be unambiguously determined by comparison of calculated and measured circular dichroism (CD) spectra. Furthermore, we analyzed ring strain phenomena of (1,5)naphthalenophanes 10. Depending on the length of the linker units, one can distinguish three classes of naphthalenophanes. Compounds 10a-c are highly strained (E(STR) = 7-31 kcal/mol), and the strain is caused by small bond angles in the linker unit and deformation of the naphthalene moiety. Another type of strain is observed if the linker unit becomes relatively long (10g,h) originating from transannular interactions and is comparable with the well-known strain of medium sized rings. The naphthalenophanes 10d-f with a linker length of 10-14 atoms are only marginally strained. To clearly discriminate the different sources of strain, we defined two geometrical parameters (average central dihedral angle δ(C) and naphthalene thickness D(N)) and demonstrated that they are well-suited to indicate naphthalene deformation of our naphthalenophanes 10 as well as of ten model naphthalenophanes (I-X) with different linker lengths and linking positions.

Zusammenfassung gegenstand der vorliegenden arbeit ist die Überprüfung der Prognosegüte dynamischer risikoparameter zur Vorhersage einschlägiger rückfälle bei einer Stichprobe pädosexueller täter (n = 135), die zwischen 2002 und 2005 aus dem österreichischen Strafvollzug entlassen wurden. Zur erfassung der statischen Variablen wurde der Static-99, zur erfassung der (stabil-)dynamischen risikoparameter der Stable-2000 sowie dessen nachfolgeversion, der Stable-2007, verwendet. neben der interraterreliabilität, die als zufriedenstellend eingestuft werden konnte, stand die Überprüfung der prädiktiven und der inkrementellen Validität der dynamischen risikoparameter im Mittelpunkt der vorliegenden Untersuchung. Die eingesetzten Verfahren - Static-99, Stable-2000 und Stable-2007 -zeigten nach einem 5½-jährigen Katamnesezeitraum für die sexuell motivierte rückfälligkeit eine gute Vorhersageleistung. Darüber hinaus erwies sich der Stable-2007 dem Vorgängermodell gegenüber als überlegen und lieferte über den Static-99 hinaus einen zusätzlichen prognostischen erklärungswert.Schlüsselwörter Sexualstraftäter · Kriminalprognose · Validität · Static-99 · Stable-Abstract the present study examines the predictive validity of dynamic risk factors for the prediction of sexual recidivism in a sample of pedosexual offenders (n = 135) released from the austrian prison system between 2002 and 2005. Static-99 was used to rate static risk factors and in order to measure dynamic risk factors Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 were applied. in addition to the demonstration of results about the interrater reliability the results about the predictive and incremental validity of the dynamic risk assessment are presented. after a mean follow-up period of 5½ years Static-99, Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 showed excellent interrater reliability and good predictive validity for the prediction of sexual recidivism. Furthermore, Stable-2007 showed better predictive accuracy than its predecessor and added incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99.